Firefly Aerospace vs ABL Space Systems

Two small launch startups founded in 2017 with similar ambitions but sharply divergent outcomes. Firefly has reached orbit and is expanding into medium-lift with Northrop Grumman, while ABL Space (now rebranded as Long Wall) abandoned orbital launch entirely after two failed attempts and pivoted to missile defense.

Divergent Paths in Small Launch

Firefly Aerospace had its own near-death experience: the original company went bankrupt in 2016 before being reconstituted in 2017 under new ownership. After a failed first orbital attempt in September 2021 (the vehicle was terminated after a first-stage engine failed at liftoff), Firefly successfully reached orbit on its second attempt in October 2022. Since then, Alpha has continued flying, building a track record that has attracted U.S. Space Force task orders under the OSP-4 program and NASA VADR contracts. Firefly also developed the Elytra orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) to provide last-mile delivery for smallsats.

ABL Space Systems attracted significant early attention with its innovative containerized launch system (GS0), which promised to deploy a complete launch pad from shipping containers at virtually any location. The company secured a 58-launch contract from Lockheed Martin to deploy satellites on RS1. However, ABL's first orbital attempt in January 2023 from Kodiak, Alaska ended in failure when a fire damaged key harnessing, causing the engines to shut down 11 seconds after liftoff. A second RS1 rocket was destroyed during a static-fire test in July 2024. In February 2025, ABL rebranded as Long Wall and officially abandoned orbital launch, pivoting to missile defense applications.

Strategic Partnerships & Future Vehicles

Firefly's most significant strategic move has been its partnership with Northrop Grumman. The two companies announced joint development of the Medium Launch Vehicle (MLV), now named Eclipse, designed to replace the aging Antares rocket (whose RD-181 engines were Russian-supplied). In May 2025, Northrop Grumman invested $50M in Firefly to advance Eclipse production. Eclipse targets ~16,000 kg to LEO, putting it in the medium-lift class and giving Firefly a path well beyond small-launch economics. This partnership effectively ensures Firefly has a deep-pocketed industrial partner and a guaranteed customer for its next vehicle.

ABL's key partnership was with Lockheed Martin, which committed to a 58-launch block buy of RS1 missions. However, after the failed first launch in January 2023 and the destruction of the second RS1 during preflight testing in July 2024, ABL's orbital ambitions ended. The company rebranded as Long Wall in February 2025 and pivoted to missile defense, abandoning the commercial launch market entirely. The Lockheed Martin launch contract was effectively cancelled, though Lockheed Martin Ventures had also made an equity investment in the company.

The Small Launch Market Reality

Both companies illustrate the brutal economics of the small launch market. SpaceX's Transporter rideshare missions offer smallsat launches at $5,000-$6,000 per kg, far below the $10,000-$15,000/kg typical of dedicated small launchers. Rocket Lab's Electron is the only small launcher to achieve consistent commercial cadence, with 50+ launches. Of the dozens of small launch startups that emerged in the 2015-2020 era, most have failed or pivoted (Astra, Virgin Orbit, ABL/Long Wall). Firefly's pivot toward medium-lift via the Northrop Grumman Eclipse partnership acknowledges this reality. ABL's complete abandonment of orbital launch and rebrand as Long Wall for missile defense is, in part, a reflection of investors and customers losing patience with a market segment where margins are thin and SpaceX rideshares offer a cheaper alternative for many payloads.