What does "re-entry" mean on this page?

We use Space-Track's definition. Its predicted time is when an object is expected to reach 10 km altitude on the way down, and the location it gives is, in its words, "the location above which an object is predicted to arrive at 10km altitude during its descent, not the predicted Earth impact location." For an uncontrolled re-entry, nobody can say in advance where any surviving pieces reach the ground, so we never show a landing spot.

Why is the window hours wide?

Air drag at the edge of space is hard to forecast. ESA's re-entry guide applies an uncertainty of plus or minus 20% of the object's remaining time in orbit, and attributes prediction errors roughly to the atmosphere (70%), the object's ballistic coefficient (20%) and orbit determination (10%). The window narrows as the day approaches: Swift's first Space-Track message, about four days ahead, carried plus or minus 18 hours.

Why can nobody say exactly where it will come down?

An object this low goes around the Earth in about an hour and a half, so a few hours of uncertainty in time means several laps of its orbit. ESA's guide says re-entries "cannot be predicted with a high degree of confidence until the last few passes prior to re-entry." That is why we show the latitudes it passes over and, when the data supports it, its possible paths: never a single point.

Is a re-entry dangerous?

Space-Track issues these messages for objects "which have the potential for generating debris which could pose a hazard to people or property on Earth." Whether anything survives depends on the object. We only say that parts are expected to survive when the operator says so, and we never estimate risk ourselves. Follow your national authority for any safety advice.

Where do these predictions come from, and how often do they change?

From Space-Track.org, the site through which U.S. Space Command and the U.S. Space Force's 18th Space Defense Squadron share space surveillance data: its Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages and decay records. We check for new messages every hour, and every 10 minutes while an object is due within 12 hours. An object is shown as re-entered only when Space-Track's decay record or the catalogue says so, never just because its window has passed.

Satellite and rocket re-entries

What is predicted to come down in the next few days, how wide each prediction window is, and what has come down recently. Predictions are from the U.S. Space Force via Space-Track.org.

Coming down soon

No open Space-Track re-entry prediction matches these filters. Predictions usually start a few days before an object comes down.

Recently came down, or assessed by Space-Track (last 90 days)

7 days 30 days 90 days

SWIFTSpace-Track assessment after the predicted time
Space-Track message of 4 Nov, 17:35 UTC gives 12:39 UTC on Wed 4 Nov, plus or minus 1 minute. Not yet catalogued as re-entered.
Payload
AUREOLE 2Catalogued as re-entered
CelesTrak catalogue: re-entered on 27 Oct 2026.
Last Space-Track prediction: 16:03 UTC on Tue 27 Oct.
Payload
YAOGAN-35 02BCatalogued as re-entered
CelesTrak catalogue: re-entered on 23 Oct 2026.
Last Space-Track prediction: 22:41 UTC on Fri 23 Oct.
Payload
COSMOS 2572

Listed only when a source says so: Space-Track's decay record or the catalogue ("catalogued as re-entered"), or a Space-Track message issued after the predicted time, which we show as Space-Track's assessment and not as a catalogued re-entry. A passed window alone never counts.

The last 30 days

In the last 30 days Space-Track issued 354 re-entry predictions for 59 objects; 51 of those objects were Starlink satellites.

Reading a re-entry prediction

What does "re-entry" mean on this page?: We use Space-Track's definition. Its predicted time is when an object is expected to reach 10 km altitude on the way down, and the location it gives is, in its words, "the location above which an object is predicted to arrive at 10km altitude during its descent, not the predicted Earth impact location." For an uncontrolled re-entry, nobody can say in advance where any surviving pieces reach the ground, so we never show a landing spot.
Why is the window hours wide?: Air drag at the edge of space is hard to forecast. ESA's re-entry guide applies an uncertainty of plus or minus 20% of the object's remaining time in orbit, and attributes prediction errors roughly to the atmosphere (70%), the object's ballistic coefficient (20%) and orbit determination (10%). The window narrows as the day approaches: Swift's first Space-Track message, about four days ahead, carried plus or minus 18 hours.
Why can nobody say exactly where it will come down?: An object this low goes around the Earth in about an hour and a half, so a few hours of uncertainty in time means several laps of its orbit. ESA's guide says re-entries "cannot be predicted with a high degree of confidence until the last few passes prior to re-entry." That is why we show the latitudes it passes over and, when the data supports it, its possible paths: never a single point.
Is a re-entry dangerous?: Space-Track issues these messages for objects "which have the potential for generating debris which could pose a hazard to people or property on Earth." Whether anything survives depends on the object. We only say that parts are expected to survive when the operator says so, and we never estimate risk ourselves. Follow your national authority for any safety advice.
Where do these predictions come from, and how often do they change?

Newsletter

Satellite and rocket re-entries

Coming down soon

Recently came down, or assessed by Space-Track (last 90 days)

The last 30 days

Reading a re-entry prediction

Elsewhere