IllustrationUS vs China · Moon race tracker
Race to the Moon: who is closer to landing people there — and staying?
A neutral tracker of the United States and China, built on a published method, beside a catalogue of every lunar mission since the first attempts of 1958. It separates two questions: who has demonstrated more of the hardware, and who is projected to land first. Every rung, date and number links to its source.
Data reviewed against sources as of · Tracker method v1.0 · All dates UTC unless a local time is shown
Demonstrated milestones
Two ladders of eight verifiable rungs each. A rung scores 0, ¼, ½ or 1 by the kind of evidence; all rungs weigh the same. Tap any cell for its evidence. China is on the left and the United States on the right (alphabetical). How the tracker works.
Planned (0)Ground-tested (¼)Flown, short (½)Done (1)CN · China (dotted)US · United States (hatched)
Crewed landing
At least one person on the lunar surface, returned to Earth alive.
United States leads on demonstrated milestones (China 1.75 · United States 3.5 of 8; a lead needs a full rung)
When? Projected crewed-landing windows
Each official target, stretched by the programme’s own record of meeting dated promises. Published rule: a country is “projected first” only if its window ends before the other’s begins in every published scenario.
Too close to call
Headline scenario (lunar + human-spaceflight record, remaining-horizon model): bands overlap. 7 of 12 scenarios give the same call; the rest are listed on the method page. Low confidence.
What’s next (next 90 days)
Dated items from our data whose window falls in the next 90 days, plus lunar missions on the live launch schedule.
2026
- US — United StatesScheduled
Starship Flight 14 — first planned orbital flight
"As early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval" (SpaceX, 17 Sep 2026)
Up to 26 Starlink V3 satellites; 75-minute window opening 8:15 am EDT. The first 13 flights were all suborbital. Reaching orbit would move the US on rung L1.
Sources: Space.com (updated 17 Sep 2026)
- US — United StatesScheduled
Latest changes
What happened in the last 60 days, newest first.
2026
- US — United StatesDone
NASA expects only one lunar launch in 2026 (Griffin-1)
Sources: Aerospace America (AIAA) (15 Sep 2026)
- CN — ChinaDone
Chang’e-7 postponed out of this year’s window
CMSA: “In line with the principle of being prudent, reliable and failure-proof, and after a comprehensive assessment, the Chang’e-7 mission does not meet launch conditions and cannot be carried out in this year’s planned window.” No cause and no new date given.
Sources:
Context (shown, never scored)
| Item | China | United States |
|---|---|---|
| Launches per landing Sources: NASA Office of Inspector General (IG-26-004) (10 Mar 2026) · Spaceflight Now (10 Mar 2026) · SpaceNews (Jul 2023) | Two Long March 10s | SLS plus "more than 10 Starship tankers" (OIG; Spaceflight Now says 10 to 20) |
| Published lunar budget Sources: SpacePolicyOnline (3 Apr 2026) · The Planetary Society (Mar 2026) |
Explore
- United StatesArtemis, the landers, Moon Base, CLPS and the policy behind them.
- ChinaChang’e, Long March 10, Mengzhou, Lanyue and the ILRS.
- All 173 missions141 flown or attempted since 1958, plus what is on the manifests. Filter and download as CSV.
- TimelineEvery dated step, past and planned, in one list.
- Alliances74 Artemis Accords signatories and the ILRS partners.
- Records and firstsWho did what first — with the definitional disputes.
Evidence last reviewed 23 Sep 2026. Found an error? Tell us — corrections are logged on the method page.