What does "re-entry" mean on this page?

We use Space-Track's definition. Its predicted time is when an object is expected to reach 10 km altitude on the way down, and the location it gives is, in its words, "the location above which an object is predicted to arrive at 10km altitude during its descent, not the predicted Earth impact location." For an uncontrolled re-entry, nobody can say in advance where any surviving pieces reach the ground, so we never show a landing spot.

Why is the window hours wide?

Air drag at the edge of space is hard to forecast. ESA's re-entry guide applies an uncertainty of plus or minus 20% of the object's remaining time in orbit, and attributes prediction errors roughly to the atmosphere (70%), the object's ballistic coefficient (20%) and orbit determination (10%). The window narrows as the day approaches: Swift's first Space-Track message, about four days ahead, carried plus or minus 18 hours.

Why can nobody say exactly where it will come down?

An object this low goes around the Earth in about an hour and a half, so a few hours of uncertainty in time means several laps of its orbit. ESA's guide says re-entries "cannot be predicted with a high degree of confidence until the last few passes prior to re-entry." That is why we show the latitudes it passes over and, when the data supports it, its possible paths: never a single point.

Is a re-entry dangerous?

Space-Track issues these messages for objects "which have the potential for generating debris which could pose a hazard to people or property on Earth." Whether anything survives depends on the object. We only say that parts are expected to survive when the operator says so, and we never estimate risk ourselves. Follow your national authority for any safety advice.

Where do these predictions come from, and how often do they change?

From Space-Track.org, the site through which U.S. Space Command and the U.S. Space Force's 18th Space Defense Squadron share space surveillance data: its Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages and decay records. We check for new messages every hour, and every 10 minutes while an object is due within 12 hours. An object is shown as re-entered only when Space-Track's decay record or the catalogue says so, never just because its window has passed.

Satellite re-entries: what is coming down and when

Coming down soon

STARLINK-2298

PayloadStarlink constellation

Between 02:24 and 06:24 UTC on Thu 5 Nov

Predicted 04:24 UTC, plus or minus 2 hours.

Window opens in about 6 hours.

That window spans about 3 orbits, so it could come down anywhere along about 3 laps of its path, between about 53.1°S and 53.1°N.

Space-Track update of 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC. Next update expected in about 2 hours.

Owner United States (US) · Large radar size, over 1 m · NORAD 48022

STARLINK-2298: details and how the prediction changed

STARLINK-36253

PayloadStarlink constellation

Between 05:58 and 21:58 UTC on Thu 5 Nov

Predicted 13:58 UTC, plus or minus 8 hours.

Window opens in about 9 hours.

That window spans about 11 orbits, so it could come down anywhere along about 11 laps of its path, between about 82.7°S and 82.7°N.

Space-Track update of 3 Nov, 22:37 UTC. Space-Track's next update was expected around 13:58 UTC.

Owner United States (US) · Large radar size, over 1 m · NORAD 68028

STARLINK-36253: details and how the prediction changed

STARLINK-1420

PayloadStarlink constellation

Between 00:42 and 22:42 UTC on Fri 6 Nov

Predicted 11:42 UTC, plus or minus 11 hours.

Window opens in about 28 hours.

That window spans about 15 orbits, so it could come down anywhere along about 15 laps of its path, between about 53°S and 53°N.

Space-Track update of 4 Nov, 13:34 UTC. Next update expected in about 15 hours.

Owner United States (US) · Large radar size, over 1 m · NORAD 45695

STARLINK-1420: details and how the prediction changed

STARLINK-1730

PayloadStarlink constellation

Between 02:04 UTC on Sat 7 Nov and 16:04 UTC on Sun 8 Nov

Predicted 21:04 UTC, plus or minus 19 hours.

Window opens in about 2 days.

That window spans about 26 orbits, so it could come down anywhere along about 26 laps of its path, between about 53°S and 53°N.

Space-Track update of 3 Nov, 21:30 UTC. Next update expected in about 25 minutes.

Owner United States (US) · Large radar size, over 1 m · NORAD 46563

STARLINK-1730: details and how the prediction changed

STARLINK-1338

PayloadStarlink constellation

Between 15:32 UTC on Sat 7 Nov and 03:32 UTC on Mon 9 Nov

Predicted 09:32 UTC, plus or minus 18 hours.

Window opens in about 3 days.

That window spans about 24 orbits, so it could come down anywhere along about 24 laps of its path, between about 53°S and 53°N.

Space-Track update of 4 Nov, 14:43 UTC. Next update expected in about 13 hours.

Owner United States (US) · Large radar size, over 1 m · NORAD 45532

STARLINK-1338: details and how the prediction changed

Window closed, no decay record yet

STARLINK-32664

PayloadStarlink constellation

Between 13:53 and 15:53 UTC on Wed 4 Nov

Predicted 14:53 UTC, plus or minus 1 hour.

The window closed at 15:53 UTC on Wed 4 Nov. We hold no Space-Track decay record for it yet.

That window spans about 1 orbit, so it could come down anywhere along about 1 lap of its path, between about 43°S and 43°N.

Space-Track update of 4 Nov, 12:45 UTC. This message gives no time for the next Space-Track update.

Owner United States (US) · Large radar size, over 1 m · NORAD 62204

STARLINK-32664: details and how the prediction changed

Recently came down, or assessed by Space-Track (last 30 days)

SWIFTSpace-Track assessment after the predicted time

Space-Track message of 4 Nov, 17:35 UTC gives 12:39 UTC on Wed 4 Nov, plus or minus 1 minute. Not yet catalogued as re-entered.

Payload

STARLINK-1478Catalogued as re-entered

Space-Track decay record: re-entered on 4 Nov 2026.

Last Space-Track prediction: 00:48 UTC on Wed 4 Nov.

PayloadStarlink constellation

Newsletter

Satellite and rocket re-entries

Coming down soon

STARLINK-2298

STARLINK-36253

STARLINK-1420

STARLINK-1730

STARLINK-1338

Window closed, no decay record yet

STARLINK-32664

Recently came down, or assessed by Space-Track (last 30 days)

The last 30 days

Reading a re-entry prediction

Elsewhere