Promise Ledger

Elon Musk: public spaceflight commitments

Founder and chief executive of SpaceX. These are the dated public commitments by Elon Musk that we could source to a primary, with what happened. Roles are as of the date each was said.

6 entries: 2 met; 1 met late; 1 revised; 1 not scored (a ceiling, not a target); 1 pending.

Plain counts, not a grade or a ranking. A short record is not a complete one. Updated Sep 28, 2026; each entry shows the date it was last checked against its source; scoring rules on the methodology page.

This first release is a selection, and a short record is not a complete record. Each programme milestone enters the ledger at its earliest dated public commitment we can find in a primary source, for governments and companies alike. Later dated commitments for the same milestone are shown on that one entry as a revision chain, oldest first, rather than as separate entries.

Entries

Met

Met late

Missed

Revised

Not scored

Pending

What the statuses mean

Met:: happened on or before the deadline.
Met late:: happened after the deadline.
Revised:: the date or quantity was moved before it came due.
Not scored (a ceiling, not a target):: the words set a ceiling ("up to"), not a target.
Pending:: the deadline has not passed.

Spoke for: SpaceX

Entries, soonest deadline first

StatusClaim typeOrganisation

First Falcon Heavy launch from Cape Canaveral
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · Elon Musk, CEO and chief rocket designer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“First launch from our Cape Canaveral launch complex is planned for late 2013 or 2014.”
Said Apr 5, 2011. Source: SpaceX (archived copy): SpaceX Announces Launch Date for the World's Most Powerful Rocket (Apr 5, 2011, paragraph 3)
Context: National Press Club announcement of Falcon Heavy; the same quote said the vehicle would first arrive at Vandenberg by the end of 2012.
Deadline
“late 2013 or 2014”, read as Dec 31, 2014 (year precision)Worded as a target ("targeting", "plan", "expect", "no earlier than")
Counts as met when
A Falcon Heavy lifts off from SpaceX's Florida launch site.
Outcome: The first Falcon Heavy lifted off from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on 2018-02-06. (Feb 6, 2018, 1,133 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: Space.com: Success! SpaceX Launches Falcon Heavy Rocket on Historic Maiden Voyage (Feb 6, 2018)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
60 Falcon launches in 2022
Met · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!”
Said Mar 28, 2022. Source: Elon Musk on X: SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress, aiming for 60 launches this year (Mar 28, 2022, post text)
Deadline
“this year”, read as Dec 31, 2022 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
At least 60 Falcon launches lift off in calendar year 2022.
Outcome: SpaceX flew 61 Falcon missions in 2022; the 60th (Starlink Group 5-1) lifted off on 2022-12-28 and the 61st (EROS-C3) on 2022-12-30. (Dec 28, 2022, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASASpaceflight: SpaceX launches EROS-C3 observation satellite from Vandenberg (Dec 30, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Up to 100 SpaceX flights in 2023
Not scored (a ceiling, not a target) · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year”
Said Aug 31, 2022. Source: Elon Musk on X: Reply: aiming for up to 100 flights next year (Aug 31, 2022, post text (reply to @SciGuySpace))
Context: Reply to Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace), who had posted that he had heard the company's goal was 100 orbital flights in 2023.
Deadline
“next year”, read as Dec 31, 2023 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
At least 100 SpaceX launches lift off in calendar year 2023.
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 96 Falcon launches in 2023; Starship also made two flight tests that year (April 20 and November 18), for 98 SpaceX launches in total.
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (MD&A, 2024 compared with 2023, page 116) (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Four Mars ships in 2024, two cargo and two crew
Revised · worded as a possibility
Crewed milestone · Elon Musk, CEO and Lead Designer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“Then in 2024 we want to try to fly four ships”
Said Sep 28, 2017. Source: SpaceX (archived copy): Making Life Multiplanetary (abridged transcript of Elon Musk's IAC 2017 presentation) (Sep 28, 2017, page 9)
Context: 68th International Astronautical Congress, Adelaide, after the 2022 cargo-mission goal. SpaceX's abridged transcript of the talk labels itself 'abridged transcript 9/28/2017'.
Deadline
“in 2024”, read as Dec 31, 2024 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
A SpaceX mission carrying crew launches toward Mars.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
1. Sep 7, 2024: “If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.” (new date as stated: in 4 years (the 2028 window), conditional on uncrewed landings in 2026, read as Dec 31, 2028). PendingSource: Elon Musk on X: The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years... (Sep 7, 2024)
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No crewed or cargo Mars mission had launched as of 2026-09-28. Starship first reached orbit on Flight 14 on 2026-09-28, a Starlink deployment flight that SpaceX called the first orbital flight of Starship.
Outcome source: SpaceX on X: Splashdown confirmed. Congratulations to the entire SpaceX team on the first orbital flight of Starship! (Sep 28, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
More than 150 Falcon flights in 2025
Met · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights!”
Said Nov 27, 2024. Source: Elon Musk on X: And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights! (Nov 27, 2024, post text)
Deadline
“next year”, read as Dec 31, 2025 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
At least 151 Falcon launches lift off in calendar year 2025.
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 165 Falcon launches in 2025; the 151st of the year lifted off on 2025-11-23. (Nov 23, 2025, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
First uncrewed Starships launch to Mars in the 2026 window
Pending · worded as a commitment
Launch · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.”
Said Sep 7, 2024. Source: Elon Musk on X: The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years... (Sep 7, 2024, post text, paragraph 1)
Context: The 2026 Earth-Mars window: NASA's mission design handbook gives minimum-energy departures on 2026-10-31 and 2026-11-14. We use the end of 2026, as the starship-mars tracker does.
Deadline
“in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens”, read as Jan 11, 2027 (window precision)Worded as a commitment ("will")
Counts as met when
A Starship launches on a trajectory to Mars.
Outcome: Pending: the 2026 Earth to Mars window runs to 2027-01-11 (NASA mission design handbook). On 2026-02-08 Musk wrote: "SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon". Starship first reached orbit on Flight 14 on 2026-09-28; no Starship has launched toward Mars as of 2026-09-28.
Outcome source: Elon Musk on X: For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon (Feb 8, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·

Corrections, responses and submissions

Something wrong? Report a correction with the entry and a source. Every entry also has its own link.
An organisation named here can send its public response to an entry through the same link; a dated, sourced response is shown on the entry.
Know a dated public commitment we have not listed? Submit it with the exact words and a primary source (the speaker's own post, video with a timestamp, release, filing or transcript).
The same rules and the same standard of evidence apply to everyone. Confirmed changes are logged on the corrections page with the date.

Open data: download the whole ledger (CSV, CC BY 4.0). Archived on Zenodo, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22985970. How entries are scored: methodology. No sponsor, advertiser or partner can add, remove, reorder, annotate or preview an entry, and these pages carry no advertising.

Cite as: SpaceNexus. (2026). SpaceNexus Promise Ledger (Version 2026-09-28) [Data set]. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22985970. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

The whole Promise Ledger, with every organisation and person, and the topic trackers.

Elon Musk: public spaceflight commitments

Founder and chief executive of SpaceX. These are the dated public commitments by Elon Musk that we could source to a primary, with what happened. Roles are as of the date each was said.

6 entries: 2 met; 1 met late; 1 revised; 1 not scored (a ceiling, not a target); 1 pending.

Entries

Met

Met late

Missed

Revised

Not scored

Pending

What the statuses mean

Met:: happened on or before the deadline.
Met late:: happened after the deadline.
Revised:: the date or quantity was moved before it came due.
Not scored (a ceiling, not a target):: the words set a ceiling ("up to"), not a target.
Pending:: the deadline has not passed.

Spoke for: SpaceX

Entries, soonest deadline first

StatusClaim typeOrganisation

First Falcon Heavy launch from Cape Canaveral
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · Elon Musk, CEO and chief rocket designer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“First launch from our Cape Canaveral launch complex is planned for late 2013 or 2014.”
Said Apr 5, 2011. Source: SpaceX (archived copy): SpaceX Announces Launch Date for the World's Most Powerful Rocket (Apr 5, 2011, paragraph 3)
Context: National Press Club announcement of Falcon Heavy; the same quote said the vehicle would first arrive at Vandenberg by the end of 2012.
Deadline
“late 2013 or 2014”, read as Dec 31, 2014 (year precision)Worded as a target ("targeting", "plan", "expect", "no earlier than")
Counts as met when
A Falcon Heavy lifts off from SpaceX's Florida launch site.
Outcome: The first Falcon Heavy lifted off from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on 2018-02-06. (Feb 6, 2018, 1,133 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: Space.com: Success! SpaceX Launches Falcon Heavy Rocket on Historic Maiden Voyage (Feb 6, 2018)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
60 Falcon launches in 2022
Met · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!”
Said Mar 28, 2022. Source: Elon Musk on X: SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress, aiming for 60 launches this year (Mar 28, 2022, post text)
Deadline
“this year”, read as Dec 31, 2022 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
At least 60 Falcon launches lift off in calendar year 2022.
Outcome: SpaceX flew 61 Falcon missions in 2022; the 60th (Starlink Group 5-1) lifted off on 2022-12-28 and the 61st (EROS-C3) on 2022-12-30. (Dec 28, 2022, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASASpaceflight: SpaceX launches EROS-C3 observation satellite from Vandenberg (Dec 30, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Up to 100 SpaceX flights in 2023
Not scored (a ceiling, not a target) · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year”
Said Aug 31, 2022. Source: Elon Musk on X: Reply: aiming for up to 100 flights next year (Aug 31, 2022, post text (reply to @SciGuySpace))
Context: Reply to Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace), who had posted that he had heard the company's goal was 100 orbital flights in 2023.
Deadline
“next year”, read as Dec 31, 2023 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
At least 100 SpaceX launches lift off in calendar year 2023.
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 96 Falcon launches in 2023; Starship also made two flight tests that year (April 20 and November 18), for 98 SpaceX launches in total.
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (MD&A, 2024 compared with 2023, page 116) (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Four Mars ships in 2024, two cargo and two crew
Revised · worded as a possibility
Crewed milestone · Elon Musk, CEO and Lead Designer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“Then in 2024 we want to try to fly four ships”
Said Sep 28, 2017. Source: SpaceX (archived copy): Making Life Multiplanetary (abridged transcript of Elon Musk's IAC 2017 presentation) (Sep 28, 2017, page 9)
Context: 68th International Astronautical Congress, Adelaide, after the 2022 cargo-mission goal. SpaceX's abridged transcript of the talk labels itself 'abridged transcript 9/28/2017'.
Deadline
“in 2024”, read as Dec 31, 2024 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
A SpaceX mission carrying crew launches toward Mars.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
1. Sep 7, 2024: “If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.” (new date as stated: in 4 years (the 2028 window), conditional on uncrewed landings in 2026, read as Dec 31, 2028). PendingSource: Elon Musk on X: The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years... (Sep 7, 2024)
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No crewed or cargo Mars mission had launched as of 2026-09-28. Starship first reached orbit on Flight 14 on 2026-09-28, a Starlink deployment flight that SpaceX called the first orbital flight of Starship.
Outcome source: SpaceX on X: Splashdown confirmed. Congratulations to the entire SpaceX team on the first orbital flight of Starship! (Sep 28, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
More than 150 Falcon flights in 2025
Met · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights!”
Said Nov 27, 2024. Source: Elon Musk on X: And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights! (Nov 27, 2024, post text)
Deadline
“next year”, read as Dec 31, 2025 (year precision)Worded as a possibility ("as early as", "could", "hope")
Counts as met when
At least 151 Falcon launches lift off in calendar year 2025.
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 165 Falcon launches in 2025; the 151st of the year lifted off on 2025-11-23. (Nov 23, 2025, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
First uncrewed Starships launch to Mars in the 2026 window
Pending · worded as a commitment
Launch · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.”
Said Sep 7, 2024. Source: Elon Musk on X: The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years... (Sep 7, 2024, post text, paragraph 1)
Context: The 2026 Earth-Mars window: NASA's mission design handbook gives minimum-energy departures on 2026-10-31 and 2026-11-14. We use the end of 2026, as the starship-mars tracker does.
Deadline
“in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens”, read as Jan 11, 2027 (window precision)Worded as a commitment ("will")
Counts as met when
A Starship launches on a trajectory to Mars.
Outcome: Pending: the 2026 Earth to Mars window runs to 2027-01-11 (NASA mission design handbook). On 2026-02-08 Musk wrote: "SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon". Starship first reached orbit on Flight 14 on 2026-09-28; no Starship has launched toward Mars as of 2026-09-28.
Outcome source: Elon Musk on X: For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon (Feb 8, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·

Corrections, responses and submissions

Something wrong? Report a correction with the entry and a source. Every entry also has its own link.
An organisation named here can send its public response to an entry through the same link; a dated, sourced response is shown on the entry.
Know a dated public commitment we have not listed? Submit it with the exact words and a primary source (the speaker's own post, video with a timestamp, release, filing or transcript).
The same rules and the same standard of evidence apply to everyone. Confirmed changes are logged on the corrections page with the date.

Cite as: SpaceNexus. (2026). SpaceNexus Promise Ledger (Version 2026-09-28) [Data set]. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22985970. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

The whole Promise Ledger, with every organisation and person, and the topic trackers.

Elon Musk: public spaceflight commitments

Entries, soonest deadline first

First Falcon Heavy launch from Cape Canaveral

60 Falcon launches in 2022

Up to 100 SpaceX flights in 2023

Four Mars ships in 2024, two cargo and two crew

More than 150 Falcon flights in 2025

First uncrewed Starships launch to Mars in the 2026 window

Corrections, responses and submissions

Elon Musk: public spaceflight commitments

Entries, soonest deadline first

First Falcon Heavy launch from Cape Canaveral

60 Falcon launches in 2022

Up to 100 SpaceX flights in 2023

Four Mars ships in 2024, two cargo and two crew

More than 150 Falcon flights in 2025

First uncrewed Starships launch to Mars in the 2026 window

Corrections, responses and submissions

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