Promise Ledger
Space agencies, companies and their leaders announce dates: a first flight, a landing, a station launch, a constellation in service, a number of launches in a year. This ledger records those commitments in the speaker's exact words, with a link to the primary source, the deadline as stated, and what happened, with its source.
The same rules apply to every agency, company and person, and entries are listed by deadline. Pages show plain counts, never a grade or a ranking. A short record is not a complete one: we list only what we could source to a primary.
Updated Sep 28, 2026; each entry shows the date it was last checked against its source. A pending entry whose deadline passes shows as “came due, not met” automatically until we confirm the outcome. CSV, CC BY 4.0 · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22985970 · How entries are scored · Report a correction
This first release is a selection, and a short record is not a complete record. Each programme milestone enters the ledger at its earliest dated public commitment we can find in a primary source, for governments and companies alike. Later dated commitments for the same milestone are shown on that one entry as a revision chain, oldest first, rather than as separate entries.
Listed alphabetically. An organisation's count includes statements by its people.
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · Elon Musk, CEO and chief rocket designer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“First launch from our Cape Canaveral launch complex is planned for late 2013 or 2014.”
Said . Source: SpaceX (archived copy): SpaceX Announces Launch Date for the World's Most Powerful Rocket (Apr 5, 2011, paragraph 3)
Context: National Press Club announcement of Falcon Heavy; the same quote said the vehicle would first arrive at Vandenberg by the end of 2012.
Outcome: The first Falcon Heavy lifted off from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on 2018-02-06. (, 1,133 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: Space.com: Success! SpaceX Launches Falcon Heavy Rocket on Historic Maiden Voyage (Feb 6, 2018)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · State Council of China (White paper, State Council Information Office)
“We plan to fulfill the three strategic steps of “orbiting, landing and returning” for the lunar exploration project by launching the Chang’ e-5 lunar probe by the end of 2017”
Said . Source: State Council of the PRC (english.gov.cn): Full text of white paper on China’s space activities in 2016 (Dec 27, 2016, section on major tasks, lunar exploration)
Context: White paper "China’s Space Activities in 2016", official English text.
Outcome: Chang'e-5 launched from Wenchang early on 2020-11-24 Beijing time (2020-11-23 UTC). No dated official statement moving the 2017 date before 31 December 2017 was found on CNSA's English news list. (, 1,059 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: China National Space Administration: Chang’e 5 sets out to collect moon samples in landmark mission (Nov 24, 2020)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
First flight · NASA
“a launch readiness schedule based on an initial SLS flight no later than November 2018”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Completes Key Review of World’s Most Powerful Rocket in Support of Journey to Mars (RELEASE 14-229) (Aug 27, 2014, paragraph 2)
Context: SLS Key Decision Point C commitment. Exploration Mission-1 was renamed Artemis I in 2019. The same release quotes William Gerstenmaier: "will be ready no later than November 2018."
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: SLS lifted off on the uncrewed Artemis I mission at 1:47 a.m. EST on 2022-11-16 from Launch Pad 39B. (, 261 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: Liftoff! NASA’s Artemis I Mega Rocket Launches Orion to Moon (RELEASE 22-117) (Nov 16, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Launch · State Council of China (White paper, State Council Information Office)
“We will launch the Chang’e-4 lunar probe around 2018 to achieve mankind’ s first soft landing on the far side of the moon”
Said . Source: State Council of the PRC (english.gov.cn): Full text of white paper on China's space activities in 2016 (Dec 27, 2016, section on major tasks, lunar exploration)
Context: White paper 'China's Space Activities in 2016' (spacing in "mankind’ s" is as published).
Outcome: Chang'e-4 launched on 8 December 2018 (Beijing time; 7 December UTC) and soft-landed on the far side of the Moon on 3 January 2019. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: China National Space Administration (Xinhua): China's Chang'e-4 probe makes historic landing on moon's far side (Jan 3, 2019)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a commitment
Other milestone · Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO, SpaceX · SpaceX
“We also will be doing another demonstration later this year on if we have an issue with the rocket during flight.”
Said . Source: TED: SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes (transcript) (Apr 23, 2018, transcript 4:04)
Context: Said after showing the 2015 Crew Dragon pad abort test.
Outcome: NASA and SpaceX completed the Crew Dragon in-flight launch escape demonstration on 2020-01-19 from Launch Complex 39A. (, 384 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: NASA, SpaceX Complete Final Major Flight Test of Crew Spacecraft (Jan 19, 2020)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Launch cadence · Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO, SpaceX · SpaceX
“We've got a couple of launches of Falcon Heavy later this year,”
Said . Source: TED: SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes (transcript) (Apr 23, 2018, transcript 0:36)
Context: TED2018 conversation with Chris Anderson, two months after the first Falcon Heavy flight.
Outcome: No Falcon Heavy launched in the rest of 2018; the second Falcon Heavy flight lifted off on 2019-04-11 (Arabsat-6A).
Outcome source: Spaceflight Now: SpaceX's Falcon Heavy successful in commercial debut (Apr 11, 2019)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Landing · ISRO
“All the modules are getting ready for Chandrayaan-2 launch during the window of July 09, to July 16, 2019, with an expected Moon landing on September 06, 2019.”
Said . Source: ISRO: Press Release on Chandrayaan-2 (May 1, 2019, paragraph 2)
Context: ISRO press release on Chandrayaan-2 (Orbiter, Vikram lander, Pragyan rover). Earliest dated ISRO statement with a landing date that we found; earlier statements gave launch periods only.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: missed.
Outcome: Vikram's descent on 2019-09-07 (IST) was as planned down to an altitude of 2.1 km, after which communication from the lander to the ground stations was lost.
Outcome source: ISRO: Chandrayaan 2 - Update (Sep 7, 2019)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
First flight · ESA
“Vega-C is expected to debut in mid-2019”
Said . Source: ESA: Rocket motor for Ariane 6 and Vega-C is cast for testing (Oct 13, 2017, last paragraph)
Context: ESA article on casting the first P120C development motor.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Vega-C flight VV21 lifted off from Kourou at 13:13 UTC on 2022-07-13. The June 2021 date in the chain passed before ESA’s next dated statement (2021-07-21). (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: ESA: Vega-C successfully completes inaugural flight (Jul 13, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · Boeing
“Orbital Flight Test (OFT) is currently targeted for Dec. 17”
Said . Source: Boeing: Boeing Statement Regarding OIG Report on NASA's Commercial Crew Program (Nov 18, 2019, Certification bullet)
Outcome: Starliner launched on the uncrewed Orbital Flight Test on 2019-12-20; a mission timing anomaly used too much fuel to reach the space station, and the capsule landed at White Sands on 2019-12-22 (Boeing). (, 3 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: Boeing: Boeing Starliner Completes First Orbital Flight Test with Successful Landing (Dec 22, 2019)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
First flight · Jeff Bezos, Founder, Blue Origin · Blue Origin
“We’ll be launching from here later this decade.”
Said . Source: Blue Origin: Coming to the Space Coast (Sep 15, 2015, paragraph 4)
Context: 'Here' is Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral; the orbital vehicle was later named New Glenn. Signed blog post by Bezos on blueorigin.com.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: New Glenn's first launch (NG-1) lifted off on 2025-01-16 and reached its intended orbit; the booster was lost during descent. (, 3 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Blue Origin on X: New Glenn safely reached its intended orbit during today's NG-1 mission (Jan 16, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
First flight · United Launch Alliance
“Development is on schedule to achieve qualification for flight in 2017 to support the first Vulcan flight in 2019.”
Said . Source: United Launch Alliance: ULA and Blue Origin Announce Production Agreement for American-Made BE-4 Engine (Sep 10, 2015, paragraph 2)
Context: Joint ULA and Blue Origin release on the BE-4 production agreement; 'Development' refers to the BE-4 engine.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Vulcan first flew on 2024-01-08 (Cert-1, carrying Astrobotic's Peregrine lander). (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: United Launch Alliance: Vulcan launches the first certification mission (Cert-1) (Jan 8, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Condition not met · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · Boeing
“following a successful flight, we are well positioned to fly our first crew in early 2020”
Said . Source: Boeing: Boeing Statement Regarding OIG Report on NASA's Commercial Crew Program (Nov 18, 2019, Certification bullet)
Context: "Flight" refers to the uncrewed Orbital Flight Test, then targeted for Dec. 17, 2019.
Condition: following a successful flight (the condition did not happen)
Outcome: The Orbital Flight Test (2019-12-20) did not reach the space station. On 2020-04-06 Boeing said it had "chosen to refly our Orbital Flight Test" before flying astronauts. The first crewed Starliner flight launched on 2024-06-05.
Outcome source: Boeing: Boeing Statement on Starliner's Next Flight (Apr 6, 2020)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Launch · ESA (Joint ESA and Roscosmos decision)
“they jointly decided to move the launch to the next available Mars launch window in July 2020”
Said . Source: ESA: Second ExoMars mission moves to next launch opportunity in 2020 (May 2, 2016, paragraph 5)
Context: 'They' are ESA Director General Johann-Dietrich Woerner and Roscosmos Director General Igor Komarov; the mission had been planned for 2018.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: withdrawn.
Outcome: On 17 March 2022 ESA's Council acknowledged "the present impossibility of carrying out the ongoing cooperation with Roscosmos on the ExoMars rover mission with a launch in 2022" and mandated steps to suspend it; on 28 March 2022 ESA said the 2022 launch window was no longer possible. The rover had not launched as of 2026-09-26.
Outcome source: ESA: ExoMars suspended (Agency N° 9-2022) (Mar 17, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Landing · Jim Bridenstine, NASA Administrator · NASA
“Next year, our initial science and technology research will be on the lunar surface”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Selects First Commercial Moon Landing Services for Artemis Program (May 31, 2019, paragraph 2 (Bridenstine quote))
Context: Said when NASA announced its first three CLPS lander task orders.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: Intuitive Machines' IM-1 (Odysseus) touched down in the lunar South Pole region on 2024-02-22 with NASA instruments aboard; NASA describes IM-1 as the mission "which landed, tipped over, and operated on the lunar surface". (, 783 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: Fourth Launch of NASA Instruments Planned for Near Moon's South Pole (Feb 26, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · State Council of China (White paper, State Council Information Office)
“It plans to launch the first Mars probe by 2020 to carry out orbiting and roving exploration.”
Said . Source: State Council of the PRC (english.gov.cn): Full text of white paper on China's space activities in 2016 (Dec 27, 2016, section on major tasks, deep space exploration)
Context: White paper 'China's Space Activities in 2016'; 'It' is China.
Outcome: Tianwen-1 (orbiter and rover) lifted off on a Long March 5 from Wenchang at 12:41 BJT on 23 July 2020 and entered the Earth-Mars transfer orbit. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: China National Space Administration (Xinhua): Tianwen-1: China successfully launches probe in first Mars mission (Jul 23, 2020)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
First flight · ESA
“Ariane 6’s maiden flight is planned for 2020.”
Said . Source: ESA: Rocket motor for Ariane 6 and Vega-C is cast for testing (Oct 13, 2017, last paragraph)
Context: ESA article on casting the first P120C development motor; earliest dated ESA page with an Ariane 6 first-flight date that we fetched (older ESA pages were not reachable).
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Ariane 6 lifted off on its first flight from Kourou on 9 July 2024 and deployed its satellites; the upper stage Auxiliary Propulsion Unit stopped after its second ignition, so the third Vinci burn and the deorbit did not take place. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Arianespace: Ariane 6: post-launch update (Jul 31, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
First flight · JAXA
“平成32年（2020年）に試験機１号機を打ち上げる計画。”Translation: “The plan is to launch test flight No. 1 in Heisei 32 (2020).”
Said . Source: JAXA: 新型基幹ロケットの開発について (Dec 24, 2013, page 7 (4. development plan))
Context: JAXA report "新型基幹ロケットの開発について" by Executive Director Mamoru Endo to the MEXT Space Development and Utilization Committee (13th meeting), published as a JAXA press item on 2013-12-24. The vehicle was named H3 in July 2015.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: H3 test flight No.1 lifted off on 7 March 2023; the second stage engine did not ignite and the vehicle was destroyed by command. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: JAXA: Launch Failure of H3 Launch Vehicle test flight No.1 and Setting up a Special Task Force (Mar 7, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
First flight · Relativity Space
“Relativity is on track to conduct its first full orbital launch by the end of 2020”
Said . Source: Relativity Space: Relativity Wins Right of Entry for Rocket Launch Site at Cape Canaveral (Jan 17, 2019)
Context: Release on the Launch Complex 16 right of entry at Cape Canaveral; the rocket is Terran 1.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: Terran 1 (GLHF) lifted off from LC-16 late on March 22 (EDT), 2023-03-23 UTC, survived Max-Q and completed stage separation, and did not reach orbit. (, 15 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Space.com: Relativity Space launches world's first 3D-printed rocket on historic test flight, but fails to reach orbit (Mar 23, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
First flight · Sierra Space
“The Dream Chaser will go to the space station for at least six cargo resupply missions starting in 2020”
Said . Source: Sierra Nevada Corporation: Sierra Nevada Corporation’s Dream Chaser® Spacecraft Passes Major NASA Milestone after Free-Flight Test (Jan 5, 2018, paragraph 2)
Context: Release by Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC), whose space division became Sierra Space in 2021.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 2025-11-13 Sierra Space said the first launch is targeted in Q4 of 2026; the deadline has not passed.
Outcome source: Sierra Space: Sierra Space's Dream Chaser Spaceplane Successfully Completes Critical Pre-flight Milestones (Nov 13, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Crewed milestone · Blue Origin
“On July 20th, New Shepard will fly its first astronaut crew to space.”
Said . Source: Blue Origin: Bid For the Very First Seat on New Shepard (May 5, 2021, paragraph 1)
Context: Announcement of the auction for a seat on the flight.
Outcome: NS-16 launched on 2021-07-20 with Jeff Bezos and three other people aboard. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: SpaceNews: Blue Origin launches Bezos on first crewed New Shepard flight (Jul 20, 2021)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Landing · Astrobotic
“Astrobotic of Pittsburgh has been awarded $79.5 million and has proposed to fly as many as 14 payloads to Lacus Mortis, a large crater on the near side of the Moon, by July 2021.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Selects First Commercial Moon Landing Services for Artemis Program (May 31, 2019, award list, Astrobotic item)
Context: Date proposed by the company, published in NASA's CLPS award release.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: missed.
Outcome: Peregrine Mission One launched on 2024-01-08 and did not land; Astrobotic confirmed its controlled re-entry over the South Pacific on 2024-01-18. Griffin-1 had not launched by 2026-09-26.
Outcome source: Astrobotic: Final Update for Peregrine Mission One (Jan 19, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Landing · Intuitive Machines
“The company has proposed to fly as many as five payloads to Oceanus Procellarum, a scientifically intriguing dark spot on the Moon, by July 2021.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Selects First Commercial Moon Landing Services for Artemis Program (May 31, 2019, award list, Intuitive Machines item)
Context: Date proposed by the company, published in NASA's CLPS award release.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: IM-1 (Odysseus) launched on 2024-02-15 and touched down on 2024-02-22 in the lunar South Pole region, not Oceanus Procellarum; NASA describes IM-1 as the mission "which landed, tipped over, and operated on the lunar surface". ()
Outcome source: NASA: Fourth Launch of NASA Instruments Planned for Near Moon's South Pole (Feb 26, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a possibility
Crewed milestone · Axiom Space
“The mission, set to launch as soon as the second half of 2021, will allow the crew to live aboard the ISS”
Said . Source: Axiom Space: Axiom Space plans first-ever fully private human spaceflight mission to International Space Station (Mar 5, 2020, paragraph 1 (beginning 'Axiom has signed a contract with SpaceX'))
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: Ax-1 launched with four private astronauts on 2022-04-08 from Launch Complex 39A. (, 67 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Axiom Space: Ax-1 mission launches successfully; 4 private astronauts en route to space station (Apr 8, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a commitment
Launch cadence · NASA
“using commercial delivery services to send dozens of new science investigations and technology demonstrations to the Moon twice per year beginning in 2021”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Publishes Artemis Plan to Land First Woman, Next Man on Moon in 2024 (RELEASE 20-092) (Sep 21, 2020, paragraph 4)
Context: Artemis Plan release. The sentence begins "NASA already will be back on the Moon robotically".
Outcome: No CLPS mission launched in 2021, 2022 or 2023. Intuitive Machines' IM-1, carrying NASA instruments, touched down on 2024-02-22. No NASA statement moving the 2021 start was found.
Outcome source: NASA: NASA Collects First Surface Science in Decades via Commercial Moon Mission (Mar 1, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Government of India (Union Cabinet decision (PIB release))
“First human space flight demonstration is targeted to be completed within 40 months from the date of sanction. Prior to this, two unmanned flights in full complement will be carried out”
Said . Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India: Cabinet approves Indian Human Spaceflight Initiative: Gaganyaan Programme (Dec 28, 2018, paragraph beginning "First human space flight demonstration")
Context: Union Cabinet approval of the Gaganyaan Programme. The uncrewed flights were to come before the crewed flight targeted within 40 months of the sanction (28 December 2018), which bounds the first uncrewed flight (G1) to 30 April 2022 at the latest.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Not launched as of 2026-09-26; the deadline has not passed.
Outcome source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India: Parliament question: Gaganyaan mission and Bharatiya Antariksh Station (Aug 5, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Astrobotic
“Its unveiling is a sign of Peregrine’s state of readiness as it moves closer to its launch date, scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year.”
Said . Source: Astrobotic: Astrobotic Unveils Peregrine Lunar Lander Flight Model (Apr 20, 2022, paragraph 1 (dateline 'Pittsburgh, PA, April 20, 2022'))
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: Peregrine launched at 2:18 a.m. ET on 2024-01-08 on the first Vulcan flight (Astrobotic). (, 283 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Astrobotic: Astrobotic's Peregrine Launches to the Moon (Jan 8, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Crewed milestone · Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India · Government of India
“We have resolved that by 2022, when India celebrates 75 years of Independence or maybe even before that, certainly some of our young boys and girls will unfurl the Tricolour in space.”
Said . Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India: English rendering of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi's address to the Nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort on the 72nd Independence Day (Aug 15, 2018, paragraph beginning 'My dear countrymen, today from the ramparts of the Red Fort')
Context: Independence Day address from the Red Fort (official English rendering); the mission became Gaganyaan.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 9 December 2021 the Minister of State for Space (MoS in the Prime Minister's Office) moved the target to 2023; no Gaganyaan crewed flight has launched as of 2026-09-26 (the government targets 2027).
Outcome source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India: Parliament question: Gaganyaan mission and Bharatiya Antariksh Station (Aug 5, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Station or module · NASA
“NASA is targeting launch of the power and propulsion element on a commercial rocket in late 2022.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Awards Artemis Contract for Lunar Gateway Power, Propulsion (RELEASE 19-042) (May 23, 2019, paragraph 3)
Context: Release on the Maxar power and propulsion element award. In 2020 NASA combined the element with the habitation and logistics outpost (HALO) for a single launch.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No Gateway element had launched as of 2026-09-26. GAO’s 2026 assessment lists Gateway Initial Capability among the projects NASA announced plans to pause.
Outcome source: U.S. Government Accountability Office: NASA: Assessments of Major Projects (GAO-26-108556) (Jul 23, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“SpaceX Falcon 🚀 team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!”
Said . Source: Elon Musk on X: SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress, aiming for 60 launches this year (Mar 28, 2022, post text)
Outcome: SpaceX flew 61 Falcon missions in 2022; the 60th (Starlink Group 5-1) lifted off on 2022-12-28 and the 61st (EROS-C3) on 2022-12-30. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASASpaceflight: SpaceX launches EROS-C3 observation satellite from Vandenberg (Dec 30, 2022)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Telesat
“the first Lightspeed satellites are expected to be launched in approximately two years, with customer beta testing beginning shortly thereafter and commercial services commencing in the second half of 2023”
Said . Source: Telesat Canada (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1): Telesat to Redefine Global Broadband Connectivity with Telesat Lightspeed, the World's Most Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellite Network (Feb 9, 2021, paragraph 2)
Context: Release announcing Thales Alenia Space as Lightspeed manufacturer (headline: 'Services Starting in 2023').
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 2026-08-13 CEO Dan Goldberg said Telesat remains on track to commence global commercial service around the end of Q1 2028.
Outcome source: Telesat Corp (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1): Telesat Reports Results for the Quarter and Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 (Aug 13, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a commitment
Launch · JAXA
“JAXA has decided to postpone ... that of the second test flight from JFY 2021 to JFY 2022.”
Said . Source: JAXA: Change of Schedule for the H3 Launch Vehicle Project (Sep 11, 2020, paragraph 1)
Context: The same release records the earlier plan for test flight No.2 in JFY2021, which appears only as a schedule chart in JAXA’s 2018-11-29 report (page 6); no dated sentence commitment for JFY2021 was found.
Outcome: H3 test flight No.2 launched on 2024-02-17 and its second stage reached the planned orbit. No dated JAXA statement moving it out of JFY2022 before 31 March 2023 was found. (, 323 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: JAXA: Launch Result of H3 Launch Vehicle test flight No.2 (Feb 17, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Crewed milestone · NASA
“a commitment to be ready for a launch with astronauts no later than April 2023”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Completes Key Milestone for Orion Spacecraft in Support of Journey to Mars (RELEASE 15-185) (Sep 16, 2015, paragraph 2)
Context: Orion Key Decision Point C (KDP-C) commitment. The first crewed mission, then called Exploration Mission-2 (EM-2), was renamed Artemis II in 2019.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: SLS lifted off from Launch Pad 39B at Kennedy Space Center at 6:35 p.m. EDT on 2026-04-01 with four astronauts aboard Orion. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: Liftoff! NASA Launches Astronauts on Historic Artemis Moon Mission (RELEASE 26-026) (Apr 1, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Landing · ispace
“the earliest scheduled landing date for the HAKUTO-R Mission 1 Lunar Lander is set for Tuesday, April 25, 2023, at 16:40 (UTC).”
Said . Source: ispace: ispace Announces Earliest Scheduled Lunar Landing Date for HAKUTO-R Mission 1 (Apr 12, 2023, paragraph 1)
Context: The release lists alternative landing dates of April 26, May 1 and May 3, 2023; the deadline uses the last of these.
Outcome: The landing sequence ran on 2023-04-25 UTC (April 26 JST). ispace reported that the lander estimated its altitude as zero while about 5 km above the surface, descended until its fuel ran out, and "is believed to have free-fallen to the Moon's surface"; it attributed the altitude error to its software.
Outcome source: ispace: ispace Announces Results of the HAKUTO-R Mission 1 Lunar Landing (May 26, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · Axiom Space
“NASA will negotiate with Axiom on a mission order agreement for the Axiom Mission 2 (Ax-2) targeted to launch between fall 2022 and late spring 2023.”
Said . Source: Axiom Space: NASA Selects Second Private Astronaut Mission to Space Station (Dec 13, 2021)
Context: Axiom's newsroom post on NASA's selection of Axiom for the second private astronaut mission; the wording follows NASA's announcement.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Ax-2 launched on a Falcon 9 from LC-39A on 2023-05-21 with Peggy Whitson, John Shoffner, Ali Alqarni and Rayyanah Barnawi, inside the original window and on the last announced date. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Axiom Space: 10 Things to Know About Ax-2 (Jun 8, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Service start · Michael Colglazier, CEO, Virgin Galactic · Virgin Galactic
“We remain on track to launch commercial service in the second quarter of 2023”
Said . Source: Virgin Galactic (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Virgin Galactic third quarter 2022 financial results release (Nov 3, 2022, CEO quote, first paragraph)
Outcome: Virgin Galactic completed its first commercial spaceflight, Galactic 01, on 2023-06-29. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Virgin Galactic (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Virgin Galactic Announces Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results And Provides Business Update (Aug 1, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · NASA (NASA (with Boeing))
“NASA and Boeing’s Crew Flight Test (CFT), planned no earlier than July 21, 2023, is the first crewed flight of the Starliner system”
Said . Source: NASA (Commercial Crew blog): NASA Updates Commercial Crew Planning Manifest Through 2024 (Apr 14, 2023, section: NASA's Boeing Crew Flight Test)
Context: NASA commercial crew planning manifest, published with partners Boeing and SpaceX.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: The Crew Flight Test launched with Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams at 10:52 a.m. ET on 2024-06-05 (Boeing). Starliner returned uncrewed in September 2024 and the two astronauts returned on SpaceX Crew-9 in March 2025 (NASA, 2026-02-19). ()
Outcome source: Boeing: Boeing Starliner Spacecraft Completes Successful Launch (Jun 5, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · Roscosmos
“11 августа в 02:10:57 мск”Translation: “11 August at 02:10:57 Moscow time”
Said . Source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): Восточный: собран «Союз» для запуска «Луны-25» (Aug 7, 2023, post text, line 3)
Context: Post on Roscosmos's official Telegram channel after the Soyuz-2.1b for Luna-25 was assembled at Vostochny. In the post this time follows the word «Старт» (launch); the quote starts after that word so that no dash or cut is needed. Roscosmos had said on 2023-05-30 that it was deemed expedient to launch Luna-25 in August 2023.
Outcome: A Soyuz-2.1b launched Luna-25 from Vostochny on 11 August 2023 (Moscow time; 10 August UTC). (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): Начало новой лунной миссии! (Aug 11, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Landing · Roscosmos
“21 августа в районе к северу от кратера Богуславский”Translation: “21 August in the area north of Boguslawsky crater”
Said . Source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): «Луна-25» на пути к естественному спутнику! (Aug 11, 2023, post text, paragraph 3)
Context: Post on Roscosmos's official Telegram channel after Luna-25 separated from the Fregat upper stage. The sentence says the soft landing («её мягкая посадка на поверхность естественного спутника Земли») is planned («намечается») for this date and place; the quote starts after those words so that no dash or cut is needed.
Outcome: On 19 August 2023 a pre-landing orbit burn deviated from plan, contact was lost around 14:57 Moscow time and Roscosmos stated that Luna-25 ceased to exist after colliding with the lunar surface; no landing took place.
Outcome source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): Statement on Luna-25 (Aug 20, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Landing · ISRO
“The Lander Module is in 25 km x 134 km orbit. Powered descent is expected to commence on August 23, 2023, around 1745 Hrs. IST”
Said . Source: ISRO: Chandrayaan-3 mission page (update of August 20, 2023) (Aug 20, 2023, update dated August 20, 2023)
Context: Mission update on ISRO's Chandrayaan-3 page; the powered descent is the start of the soft-landing sequence.
Outcome: ISRO announced on 23 August 2023 that Chandrayaan-3 had soft-landed on the Moon; the rover ramped down the next day. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: ISRO: Chandrayaan-3 mission page (update of August 23, 2023) (Aug 23, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · NASA
“NASA and SpaceX are targeting mid-August for the launch of Crew-7”
Said . Source: NASA (Commercial Crew Program blog): NASA, SpaceX Target Mid-August for Crew-7 Launch (Apr 5, 2023, paragraph 1)
Outcome: Crew-7 launched at 3:27 a.m. EDT on 2023-08-26 from Launch Complex 39A and reached orbit. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: NASA’s SpaceX Crew-7 Launches to International Space Station (RELEASE 23-094) (Aug 26, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · NASA
“Psyche, also a robotic mission, is targeted to launch in October of 2023”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Selects Two Missions to Explore the Early Solar System (RELEASE 17-003) (Jan 4, 2017, paragraph 4)
Context: NASA release selecting Lucy and Psyche for the Discovery Program. The launch was later moved earlier to 2022, then back to October 2023.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Psyche launched on a Falcon Heavy from Kennedy Space Center on 2023-10-13. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: Launching to a Metal-Rich Asteroid (Oct 16, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Steve Altemus, CEO, Intuitive Machines · Intuitive Machines
“We continue to execute and lead the development of lunar space with the expected launch of IM-1 mid-November, and IM-2, IM-3 launches in 2024.”
Said . Source: Intuitive Machines (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Intuitive Machines Announces $20 Million Equity Investment (Aug 31, 2023, Altemus quote, paragraph 2)
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: IM-1 launched on a Falcon 9 at 1:05 a.m. EST on 2024-02-15 and touched down on the Moon on 2024-02-22. (, 15 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: NASA (mission blog): Liftoff! Intuitive Machines Lander Carrying NASA Science Begins Journey to the Moon (Feb 15, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · AST SpaceMobile
“Plan to launch five Block 1 BlueBird satellites in late 2023”
Said . Source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): AST SpaceMobile third quarter 2022 business update (Nov 14, 2022)
Context: Third quarter 2022 business update.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: The five Block 1 BlueBird satellites launched on 2024-09-12, inside the September 2024 window AST gave on 2024-07-25; the Q1 2024 target given on 2023-03-31 passed without a dated revision before 2024-03-31. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 10-Q): Quarterly report for the period ended September 30, 2024 (Nov 14, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Landing · Firefly Aerospace
“Firefly’s ‘Blue Ghost’ lunar lander will deliver the payloads to the lunar surface in 2023”
Said . Source: Firefly Aerospace: NASA Awards Firefly Aerospace $93.3M to Deliver Suite of Payloads to the Moon in 2023 (Feb 4, 2021, paragraph 1)
Context: Release on NASA's CLPS task order 19D award (Mare Crisium); this became Blue Ghost Mission 1.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Blue Ghost touched down near Mons Latreille in Mare Crisium on 2025-03-02; Firefly reported the lander upright in a stable configuration. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Firefly Aerospace: Firefly Aerospace Becomes First Commercial Company to Successfully Land on the Moon (Mar 2, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Other milestone · Sierra Space
“Scheduled for December 2023 at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., the Ultimate Burst Pressure (UBP) test”
Said . Source: Sierra Space: Sierra Space Sets the Stage for Pioneering Full-Scale 'Burst Test' of Expandable Space Station Module (Nov 13, 2023)
Context: First full-scale ultimate burst pressure test of Sierra Space's LIFE expandable habitat (Orbital Reef program).
Outcome: Sierra Space announced on 2023-12-21 that it had completed the first full-scale ultimate burst pressure test at NASA Marshall. The exact test day was not stated; 2023-12-21 is the announcement date. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Sierra Space on X: Our team has completed the first ever, full-scale ultimate burst pressure test (Dec 21, 2023)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a commitment
Crewed milestone · SpaceX
“Yusaku Maezawa will be the company’s first private passenger to fly around the Moon in 2023.”
Said . Source: SpaceX (archived copy): Mars (spacex.com/mars) (Dec 1, 2018, paragraph beginning 'On September 17, 2018, SpaceX announced')
Context: SpaceX's Mars/Starship page, describing the announcement it made on 2018-09-17.
Outcome: No flight took place in 2023. On 2024-06-01 the dearMoon project announced its cancellation, stating that launch within 2023 had become unfeasible.
Outcome source: dearMoon Project: Notice of Project Cancellation (Jun 1, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Not scored (a ceiling, not a target) · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year”
Said . Source: Elon Musk on X: Reply: aiming for up to 100 flights next year (Aug 31, 2022, post text (reply to @SciGuySpace))
Context: Reply to Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace), who had posted that he had heard the company's goal was 100 orbital flights in 2023.
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 96 Falcon launches in 2023; Starship also made two flight tests that year (April 20 and November 18), for 98 SpaceX launches in total.
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (MD&A, 2024 compared with 2023, page 116) (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Service start · Telesat
“the first Lightspeed satellites are expected to be launched in approximately two years, with customer beta testing beginning shortly thereafter and commercial services commencing in the second half of 2023”
Said . Source: Telesat Canada (SEC Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1): Telesat to Redefine Global Broadband Connectivity with Telesat Lightspeed, the World's Most Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellite Network (Feb 9, 2021, paragraph 2)
Context: Release announcing Thales Alenia Space as Lightspeed manufacturer (headline: 'Services Starting in 2023').
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 2026-05-05 Telesat said it expects global commercial service to begin around the end of Q1 2028, repeated on 2026-08-13. No Lightspeed service had begun as of 2026-09-26.
Outcome source: Telesat Corp (SEC Form 6-K): Telesat reports results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 (Aug 13, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Landing · JAXA
“it will now be conducted as follows: January 20, 2024 (Saturday) ... About 12:20 am (JST) Landing on the lunar surface”
Said . Source: JAXA: Moon Landing of the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) (Dec 5, 2023, paragraph 1 and schedule list)
Context: 'It' is the SLIM lunar surface landing, earlier scheduled for January or February 2024. JAXA named a fallback opportunity around 16 February 2024.
Outcome: SLIM landed at 0:20 am JST on 20 January 2024 (19 January UTC) about 55 m from its target and communicated with Earth; after losing thrust on one main engine at about 50 m altitude it came to rest in an unplanned attitude with its solar cells not generating power at first. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: JAXA: Outcome for the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM)'s Moon Landing (Jan 25, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Landing · Astrobotic
“Peregrine will then dwell in a stable orbit and perform system checkouts before attempting a historic landing on February 23, 2024”
Said . Source: Astrobotic: Astrobotic Peregrine Fueled & Ready for Lunar Mission (Dec 19, 2023, final paragraph (beginning 'About 40 minutes after separation from ULA's Vulcan rocket'))
Context: Release stating Peregrine was fueled and targeting launch on Vulcan on January 8, 2024.
Outcome: Astrobotic confirmed Peregrine's controlled re-entry over the South Pacific on 2024-01-18. No landing took place.
Outcome source: Astrobotic: Final Update for Peregrine Mission One (Jan 19, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · NASA
“NASA’s SpaceX Crew-8: NET February 2024”
Said . Source: NASA (Commercial Crew Program blog): NASA Updates Commercial Crew Planning Manifest Through 2024 (Apr 14, 2023, Target Launch Manifest list)
Context: NASA commercial crew planning manifest.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Crew-8 launched at 10:53 p.m. EST on 2024-03-03 (03:53 UTC on 2024-03-04) from Launch Complex 39A and reached orbit. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: NASA’s SpaceX Crew-8 Launches to International Space Station (RELEASE 24-035) (Mar 3, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · Roscosmos
“9 апреля в 12:00:00 мск”Translation: “9 April at 12:00:00 Moscow time”
Said . Source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): Первая «Ангара-А5» допущена к пуску! (Apr 8, 2024, post text, lines 1 and 3)
Context: Post headed «Первая «Ангара-А5» допущена к пуску!» (The first Angara-A5 is cleared for launch!). In the post this time follows «Пуск с площадки 1А» (launch from pad 1A); the quote starts after those words so that no dash or cut is needed.
Outcome: The 9 April attempt stopped two minutes before lift-off and the 10 April attempt was called off; the Angara-A5 lifted off from Vostochny at 12:00 Moscow time on 11 April 2024. (, 2 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): Первый старт «Ангары-А5» с Восточного! (Apr 11, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
First flight · ESA
“ESA, CNES and ArianeGroup are targeting the first launch of Ariane 6 between mid June and end of July 2024.”
Said . Source: ESA: Ariane 6 joint update report, 30 November 2023 (Nov 30, 2023, section 'First flight period')
Context: Ariane 6 joint update report of the Launcher Task Force (ESA, CNES, ArianeGroup, Arianespace). Restated as 'between 15 June and 31 July 2024' in the 22 February and 26 April 2024 reports.
Outcome: Ariane 6 lifted off on its inaugural flight (VA262) from Kourou at 16:00 local time on 9 July 2024 and released its satellites in orbit. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: ESA: Europe's new Ariane 6 rocket powers into space (Jul 9, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Launch · NASA
“The Europa Clipper mission will launch in October 2024 on a Falcon Heavy rocket”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for Europa Clipper Mission (Jul 23, 2021, paragraph 2)
Outcome: Europa Clipper launched on a Falcon Heavy from Launch Complex 39A at 12:06 p.m. EDT on 2024-10-14. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: Liftoff! NASA's Europa Clipper Sails Toward Ocean Moon of Jupiter (Oct 14, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Withdrawn · worded as a target
Landing · NASA
“NASA has requested the Astrobotic and VIPER mission teams to adjust VIPER’s delivery to the Moon’s South Pole to November 2024.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Replans CLPS Delivery of VIPER to 2024 to Reduce Risk (Jul 18, 2022, paragraph 1)
Context: VIPER was to land on Astrobotic's Griffin lander under CLPS; it had been scheduled for November 2023.
Outcome: On 2024-07-17 NASA announced its intent to discontinue VIPER development, citing cost increases, launch delays and the risk of further cost growth. On 2025-09-19 NASA awarded Blue Origin a CLPS task order with an option to deliver VIPER to the lunar South Pole in late 2027 on a second Blue Moon MK1 lander (RELEASE 25-064); no delivery took place in November 2024.
Outcome source: NASA: NASA Ends VIPER Project, Continues Moon Exploration (Jul 17, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Steve Altemus, CEO, Intuitive Machines · Intuitive Machines
“We continue to execute and lead the development of lunar space with the expected launch of IM-1 mid-November, and IM-2, IM-3 launches in 2024.”
Said . Source: Intuitive Machines (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Intuitive Machines Announces $20 Million Equity Investment (Aug 31, 2023, Altemus quote, paragraph 2)
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: IM-2 launched on a Falcon 9 from Launch Complex 39A at 7:16 p.m. EST on 2025-02-26 (00:16 UTC on 2025-02-27). (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: Liftoff! NASA Tech, Science En Route to Moon with Intuitive Machines (RELEASE 25-019) (Feb 27, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a target
Service start · Amazon (Project Kuiper / Amazon Leo)
“Project Kuiper expects to begin beta testing connectivity services with select customers and partners in the second half of 2024.”
Said . Source: Amazon: Amazon's Project Kuiper and NTT/SKY Perfect JSAT Form Strategic Collaboration to Bring Advanced Satellite Connectivity Options to Japan (Nov 27, 2023, paragraph beginning 'Project Kuiper recently achieved a 100% success rate')
Outcome: On 2025-11-24 Amazon announced it was "launching a new preview program for select enterprise customers to begin testing Amazon Leo services ahead of a wider commercial rollout next year"; its Leo FAQ says "We began an enterprise preview in November 2025". (, 328 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: Amazon: Amazon Leo debuts new gigabit-speed 'Ultra' antenna, begins enterprise preview (Nov 24, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Service start · Amazon (Project Kuiper / Amazon Leo)
“Project Kuiper expects to launch the first production satellites in the first half of 2024 and plans to give its earliest customers access to the service beginning later that year”
Said . Source: Amazon: Here's your first look at Project Kuiper's low-cost customer terminals (Mar 14, 2023)
Context: 'Later that year' refers to 2024.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 2026-09-10 Amazon said it is preparing for an initial service rollout this year; the deadline of the latest date in the chain has not passed.
Outcome source: Amazon: Amazon Leo adds 6 new Arianespace launches, expanding its launch partnership (Sep 10, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Other milestone · Amazon (Project Kuiper / Amazon Leo)
“allowing Project Kuiper to scale satellite production ahead of full-scale deployment beginning this year”
Said . Source: Amazon: Amazon.com Announces Fourth Quarter Results (Feb 1, 2024, highlights list)
Context: Amazon's fourth quarter 2023 results release; 'this year' is 2024.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Amazon moved the start of deployment to early 2025 on 2024-10-03. The first production mission, KA-01, launched 27 satellites on an Atlas V on 2025-04-28. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Amazon: Amazon Leo mission updates (Jul 2, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Station or module · Axiom Space
“The company targets launch of the first module in the latter half of 2024.”
Said . Source: Axiom Space: Axiom Space selected by NASA for access to International Space Station port (Jan 27, 2020, paragraph beginning 'The company targets launch of the first module')
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 2023-08-21 Axiom said its first module was scheduled to launch to the ISS by 2026; on 2024-12-18 it changed the assembly order to put the Payload Power Thermal Module first. No Axiom module had launched as of 2026-09-26.
Outcome source: Axiom Space: Axiom Space Accelerates Axiom Station Assembly (Dec 18, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Landing · Jim Bridenstine, NASA Administrator · NASA
“We are tasked with landing on the Moon’s South Pole by 2024.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Administrator Statement on Return to Moon in Next Five Years (RELEASE 19-022) (Mar 26, 2019, statement, paragraph 1)
Context: Statement after Vice President Mike Pence’s announcement at the fifth National Space Council meeting; the landing later became the Artemis III mission.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No crewed landing on the Moon's South Pole took place by the end of 2024. NASA's 2026-02-27 update moved Artemis III to 2027 as a low Earth orbit test mission and planned the first landing for Artemis IV in 2028.
Outcome source: NASA: NASA Adds Mission to Artemis Lunar Program, Updates Architecture (RELEASE 26-022) (Feb 27, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · ESA
“The motor features an improved engine nozzle design, required to prepare for a Vega-C return-to-flight by the end of 2024.”
Said . Source: ESA: Successful engine test boosts Vega-C towards return-to-flight (May 28, 2024, paragraph 1)
Context: The Zefiro-40 second-stage motor was redesigned after the Vega-C VV22 failure in December 2022.
Outcome: Vega-C flight VV25 lifted off from Kourou at 22:20 CET on 5 December 2024 and placed Sentinel-1C in orbit. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: ESA: Double win for Europe: Sentinel-1C and Vega-C take to the skies (Dec 6, 2024)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · ispace
“At this time, there are no changes to the launch schedule for Mission 2 (scheduled for 2024) and Mission 3 (scheduled for 2025).”
Said . Source: ispace: ispace Announces Results of the HAKUTO-R Mission 1 Lunar Landing (May 26, 2023, final paragraph)
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Mission 2 (RESILIENCE lander) launched on a Falcon 9 on 2025-01-15. (, on or before the latest deadline)
Outcome source: ispace: ispace Completes Success 2 of Mission 2 Milestones (Jan 15, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
First flight · Relativity Space
“Starting in 2024, Terran R will launch from Launch Complex 16, the company’s site at Cape Canaveral”
Said . Source: Relativity Space: Relativity Unveils Its Plans for Terran R, the First Fully Reusable, Entirely 3D-Printed Rocket (Jun 8, 2021, paragraph beginning 'Terran R will be outfitted with seven 3D-printed Aeon R rocket engines')
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Relativity's August 2026 update (published 2026-09-11) reports all engines installed on the thrust structure and stage two heading to hot fire, with no launch date given.
Outcome source: Relativity Space: August 2026 Company Update (Sep 11, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
First flight · Rocket Lab
“accelerating the timeline to first launch, expected in 2024”
Said . Source: Rocket Lab (Exhibit 99.2 to Vector Acquisition Corp SEC Form 8-K): Rocket Lab Unveils Plans for New 8-Ton Class Reusable Rocket for Mega-Constellation Deployment (Mar 1, 2021, paragraph on the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport launch pad)
Context: Rocket Lab's release unveiling the Neutron rocket, on using the existing pad at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 2026-08-10 Rocket Lab said Stage 1 tank production is aligned with the target delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in Q4 2026.
Outcome source: Rocket Lab (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Rocket Lab second quarter 2026 financial results release (Aug 10, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Kiko Dontchev, Launch executive, SpaceX (titled Vice President of Launch by 2025) · SpaceX
“We are aiming for 144 launches in 2024 (12 per month).”
Said . Source: Kiko Dontchev on X: We are aiming for 144 launches in 2024 (12 per month) (Jan 3, 2024, post text, sentence 1)
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 134 Falcon launches in 2024; Starship also flew four flight tests that year (Flights 3 to 6).
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (MD&A, 2024 compared with 2023, page 116) (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a possibility
Crewed milestone · Elon Musk, CEO and Lead Designer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“Then in 2024 we want to try to fly four ships”
Said . Source: SpaceX (archived copy): Making Life Multiplanetary (abridged transcript of Elon Musk's IAC 2017 presentation) (Sep 28, 2017, page 9)
Context: 68th International Astronautical Congress, Adelaide, after the 2022 cargo-mission goal. SpaceX's abridged transcript of the talk labels itself 'abridged transcript 9/28/2017'.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No crewed or cargo Mars mission had launched as of 2026-09-28. Starship first reached orbit on Flight 14 on 2026-09-28, a Starlink deployment flight that SpaceX called the first orbital flight of Starship.
Outcome source: SpaceX on X: Splashdown confirmed. Congratulations to the entire SpaceX team on the first orbital flight of Starship! (Sep 28, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · Firefly Aerospace
“launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket during a six-day window that opens no earlier than mid-January 2025”
Said . Source: Firefly Aerospace: Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost Mission 1 to the Moon Readies for Launch (Nov 25, 2024, paragraph 1 (dateline 'Cedar Park, Texas, November 25, 2024'))
Outcome: Blue Ghost Mission 1 launched from Launch Complex 39A at 1:11 a.m. EST on 2025-01-15. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Firefly Aerospace: Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost Mission 1 Successfully Launches and Begins 45-Day Transit to the Moon (Jan 15, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · JAXA
“2024年度の打上げをターゲットに検討を進めている。”Translation: “Studies are proceeding with a target of launch in fiscal year 2024.”
Said . Source: JAXA: 宇宙科学ミッション（MMX・DESTINY＋・JUICE）の検討状況について (Jun 14, 2018, page 11 (2.2 MMX mission overview))
Context: JAXA report to the MEXT Space Development and Utilization Committee (42nd meeting), published as a JAXA press item on 2018-06-14. The same report cites the government roadmap of 12 December 2017 aiming for launch in FY Heisei 36 (2024).
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: came due, not met (awaiting confirmation).
Outcome: Not yet launched as of 2026-09-26; the window has not opened.
Outcome source: JAXA: Launch schedule of the Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) spacecraft aboard H3 Launch Vehicle flight No.10 (H3 F10) (Aug 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Landing · ispace
“a landing date and time for the SMBC x HAKUTO-R Venture Moon Mission 2 RESILIENCE lunar lander has been set for 4:24 a.m. (JST) on Friday, June 6, 2025.”
Said . Source: ispace: ispace Announces Mission 2 Landing Date Set for June 6, 2025 (JST) (Mar 4, 2025, paragraph 1)
Context: Announced by founder and CEO Takeshi Hakamada at a press conference; the release says the landing window is open from June 6 through June 8, 2025.
Outcome: The landing attempt on 2025-06-06 JST ended in a hard landing; ispace attributed it to an anomaly in the laser range finder hardware.
Outcome source: ispace: ispace Releases Technical Cause Analysis for HAKUTO-R Mission 2 (Jun 24, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Dave Limp, CEO, Blue Origin · Blue Origin
“On to spring and trying again on the landing.”
Said . Source: Dave Limp on X: We did it! Orbital. (Jan 16, 2025, post text, sentence 4)
Context: Posted after NG-1 reached orbit and its booster was lost; 'the landing' is the booster landing attempt on the next New Glenn flight.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met late.
Outcome: NG-2 lifted off on 2025-11-13 carrying NASA's ESCAPADE; the booster landed on the ship Jacklyn. (, 74 days after the latest deadline)
Outcome source: Blue Origin on X: New Glenn successfully completed its second mission (Nov 13, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · CNSA
“正按计划有序推进发射前各项测试准备工作，计划于今年上半年实施发射。”Translation: “Pre-launch testing and preparations are proceeding in an orderly way according to plan, and the launch is planned for the first half of this year.”
Said . Source: China National Space Administration: 天问二号探测器运抵发射场 (Tianwen-2 probe arrives at launch site) (Feb 20, 2025, paragraph 1)
Context: CNSA release on the probe's arrival at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center.
Outcome: Tianwen-2 launched from Xichang on 29 May 2025 (Beijing time; 28 May UTC) and reached asteroid 2016 HO3 in July 2026. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: China National Space Administration: 天问二号探测器抵达目标小行星开展科学探测 (Tianwen-2 arrives at its target asteroid) (Jul 6, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Launch · ISRO
“NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), the first joint satellite of ISRO and NASA will be launched by ISRO’s GSLV-F16 on July 30, 2025 at 1740 hrs IST”
Said . Source: ISRO: ISRO's GSLV-F16 will launch ISRO-NASA joint satellite, NISAR, on July 30, 2025 (Jul 21, 2025, paragraph 1)
Outcome: GSLV-F16 launched NISAR on 30 July 2025 and delivered it to orbit. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: ISRO: One successful year of NISAR (Aug 17, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · Blue Origin
“Our crewed NS-34 mission is targeting liftoff from Launch Site One on Sunday, August 3, 2025.”
Said . Source: Blue Origin on X: New Shepard is preparing to launch from West Texas (NS-34) (Jul 30, 2025)
Outcome: NS-34 lifted off on 2025-08-03 with its crew aboard. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Blue Origin on X: New Shepard has cleared the tower. The NS-34 crew is on their way to space. (Aug 3, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Station or module · Vast
“Scheduled to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to low-Earth orbit no earlier than August 2025”
Said . Source: Vast: Vast Announces the Haven-1 and Vast-1 Human Spaceflight Mission Launched by SpaceX on a Dragon Spacecraft (May 10, 2023, first paragraph)
Context: Subject: Haven-1.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: The 2026-01-20 release says Haven-1 integration has begun, that Vast plans a suite of system environmental tests at NASA's Neil Armstrong Test Facility later in 2026, and that Haven-1 is contracted to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral; the deadline has not passed.
Outcome source: Vast: Vast Advances Haven-1 Into Integration Phase (Jan 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Other milestone · Rocket Lab
“Confirmed Rocket Lab’s Launch Complex 3 - the launch, test, and landing site for its reusable Neutron rocket – is on track to be completed and officially opened in Q3, 2025”
Said . Source: Rocket Lab (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Rocket Lab second quarter 2025 financial results release (Aug 7, 2025)
Context: Second quarter 2025 results release.
Outcome: Rocket Lab announced the opening of Launch Complex 3 on 2025-08-28, stating the site was operational and officially opened in August 2025. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab Opens Launch Complex 3, A Critical Milestone On The Path To Neutron's First Launch (Aug 28, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Launch · JAXA
“Launch date : October 21, 2025 ... Reserved launch period : October 22 through November 30, 2025”
Said . Source: JAXA: Launch Schedule of New unmanned cargo transfer spacecraft1 (HTV-X1) aboard H3 Launch Vehicle flight No.7 (Aug 22, 2025, schedule table)
Context: Launch schedule table in JAXA's announcement for the new unmanned cargo transfer spacecraft HTV-X1 aboard H3 flight No.7.
Outcome: After a weather postponement from 21 October, H3 flight No.7 lifted off at 9:00:15 am JST on 26 October 2025 and HTV-X1 separated about 14 minutes later. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: JAXA: Launch Result of New unmanned cargo transfer spacecraft1 (HTV-X1) aboard H3 Launch Vehicle flight No.7 (Oct 26, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Launch · Blue Origin
“cameras on a payload set to launch this year on the Blue Moon MK1 mission”
Said . Source: Blue Origin on X: Test photo from the cameras on a payload set to launch this year on the Blue Moon MK1 mission (Feb 19, 2025, post text, sentence 1)
Context: The payload is NASA's SCALPSS camera array. CEO Dave Limp posted on 2025-07-23: "Step by step, our journey to the Moon later this year continues." (https://x.com/davill/status/1948096312383254868).
Outcome: MK1 did not launch in 2025. After the New Glenn explosion at Launch Complex 36 on 2026-05-28, NASA said in September 2026 that MK1 Endurance is slated to launch in the first part of 2027.
Outcome source: Aerospace America (AIAA): NASA expects one lunar launch this year, Moon Base manager says (Sep 15, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch cadence · Rocket Lab
“with a booked manifest which supports more than 20 Electron and HASTE launches for 2025”
Said . Source: Rocket Lab (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Rocket Lab fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results release (Feb 27, 2025, Launch highlights)
Context: Launch highlights in Rocket Lab's Q4 2024 results release.
Outcome: Rocket Lab reported 21 Electron missions flown in 2025, three of them HASTE, with seven in Q4 2025. The date of the 21st launch was not captured, so the year end is used. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Rocket Lab (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Rocket Lab fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results release (Feb 26, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a possibility
Launch cadence · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights!”
Said . Source: Elon Musk on X: And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights! (Nov 27, 2024, post text)
Outcome: SpaceX's S-1 reports 165 Falcon launches in 2025; the 151st of the year lifted off on 2025-11-23. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (May 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Service start · Virgin Galactic
“Under the preliminary schedule for the program, the first Delta class spaceship is expected to commence revenue-generating payload flights in late 2025, progressing to private astronaut flights in 2026”
Said . Source: Virgin Galactic (SEC Form 10-Q): Quarterly report for the period ended September 30, 2022 (Nov 3, 2022, Part II, Item 5 (Other Information), Master Agreements with Bell Textron and Qarbon Aerospace, page 42)
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No Delta payload flight flew in late 2025. On 2026-08-12 Virgin Galactic said its first ship is now expected to enter commercial service in February 2027 rather than the fourth quarter of 2026; the same release lists a captive carry flight in October 2026 as the start of the flight test phase.
Outcome source: Virgin Galactic (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Virgin Galactic second quarter 2026 financial results release (Aug 12, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met late · worded as a target
Launch · Blue Origin
“New Glenn’s third mission, NG-3, will send @AST_SpaceMobile’s next generation Block 2 BlueBird satellites to low Earth orbit, NET late February.”
Said . Source: Blue Origin on X: New Glenn’s third mission, NG-3 (Jan 22, 2026, post text, sentence 1)
Outcome: NG-3 lifted off from LC-36 on 2026-04-19 carrying BlueBird 7; AST SpaceMobile reported that the upper stage placed the satellite in a lower than planned orbit, too low to sustain operations, and that it will be de-orbited. (, 50 days after the deadline)
Outcome source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): AST SpaceMobile Addresses Today's Orbital Launch of BlueBird 7 on the New Glenn Launch Vehicle (Apr 20, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Missed · worded as a target
Launch cadence · AST SpaceMobile
“On track for five orbital launches expected by the end of Q1 2026”
Said . Source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): AST SpaceMobile Provides Business Update and Third Quarter 2025 Results (Nov 10, 2025, business highlights)
Context: Counted from the 2025-11-10 release, in which BlueBird 6 (India) and BlueBird 7 (Cape Canaveral) were the next two launches.
Outcome: On 2026-03-02 AST reported BlueBird 6 unfolded in orbit and BlueBird 7 expected to launch during March. BlueBird 7 launched on 2026-04-19 on New Glenn and reached a lower than planned orbit.
Outcome source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): AST SpaceMobile Addresses Today's Orbital Launch of BlueBird 7 on the New Glenn Launch Vehicle (Apr 19, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch · Firefly Aerospace
“preparing to ship the next first stage from Firefly's production line for an Alpha Flight 7 launch between the end of the fourth quarter and early first quarter”
Said . Source: Firefly Aerospace (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Firefly Aerospace third quarter 2025 financial results release (Nov 12, 2025)
Context: Third quarter 2025 results; Alpha's return to flight after the April 2025 Flight 6 failure and a first-stage test-stand event on 2025-09-29. Firefly's fiscal year is the calendar year.
Outcome: Alpha Flight 7 ('Stairway to Seven') launched from Vandenberg SLC-2 on 2026-03-11; Firefly reported that all mission objectives were completed. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Firefly Aerospace (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Firefly Aerospace fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results release (Mar 19, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Launch cadence · Amazon (Project Kuiper / Amazon Leo)
“the program is on pace to complete 11 launches in our first year of deployment”
Said . Source: Amazon: Amazon Leo plans to double launch rate with 20+ missions in year two (Mar 23, 2026, second paragraph)
Context: Full-scale deployment began with KA-01 on 2025-04-28. The deadline follows the published rule for "in N months or years" (rounded up to the end of the month); counted to the anniversary day itself, the count was 10.
Outcome: The 11th mission, LE-02 on Ariane 64, launched on 2026-04-30 (08:57 UTC); the 10th, LA-06, launched on 2026-04-27 EDT. Counted strictly to the 2026-04-28 anniversary, the total is 10. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: Amazon: Amazon Leo mission updates (Jul 2, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · NASA (NASA (with Boeing))
“NASA and Boeing are targeting no earlier than April 2026 to fly the uncrewed Starliner-1 pending completion of rigorous test, certification, and mission readiness activities.”
Said . Source: NASA (Commercial Crew blog): NASA, Boeing Modify Commercial Crew Contract (Nov 24, 2025, paragraph 2)
Context: Announced with a contract modification that set the firm Starliner order at four missions.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Starliner-1 had not launched by 2026-09-26. On 2026-05-01 NASA said its launch opportunities "remain under review as teams continue working through technical issues discovered during the Crew Flight Test in 2024"; Boeing's 10-Q filed 2026-07-28 says it now expects to complete an uncrewed mission no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2026.
Outcome source: NASA (Commercial Crew blog): NASA, Partners Update International Space Station 2026 Flight Plan (May 1, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Launch · Astrobotic
“The team is targeting the next viable launch window, which opens in July 2026.”
Said . Source: Astrobotic: Griffin-1 Mission Update (Oct 24, 2025, paragraph beginning 'With engine qualification testing underway')
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Griffin-1 had not launched by 2026-09-26.
Outcome source: Astrobotic: Griffin-1 Lunar Lander Unveiled Ahead of Environmental Testing (Jun 15, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a target
Constellation deployment · AST SpaceMobile
“launches every one to two months on average to reach goal of 45 to 60 satellites by end of 2026”
Said . Source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): AST SpaceMobile Provides Business Update and Third Quarter 2025 Results (Nov 10, 2025, business highlights)
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Repeated on 2026-03-02; narrowed to approximately 45 by the end of 2026 on 2026-04-19; moved to early 2027 on 2026-07-15. AST reported 13 spacecraft in orbit on 2026-08-10.
Outcome source: AST SpaceMobile (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Business Update and Second Quarter 2026 Results (Aug 10, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a target
Launch · Dave Limp, CEO, Blue Origin · Blue Origin
“We have started reconstruction and still plan to fly again this year.”
Said . Source: Dave Limp on X: Wreckage recovery completed; still plan to fly again this year (Jun 25, 2026, post text, sentence 4)
Context: After a New Glenn exploded during a static fire at Launch Complex 36 on 2026-05-28.
Outcome: New Glenn has not flown since NG-3 (2026-04-19) as of 2026-09-26; the deadline has not passed.
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a commitment
Launch · Firefly Aerospace
“The Rashid 2 Rover will join Firefly’s second lunar mission in 2026”
Said . Source: Firefly Aerospace: Firefly Aerospace Adds UAE's Rashid 2 Rover to Blue Ghost Mission to the Far Side of the Moon (May 22, 2025, paragraph 1)
Outcome: Not launched as of 2026-09-26. Firefly's 10-K filed 2026-03-20 still said 2026; Firefly's current mission page, which carries no date, says no earlier than 2027.
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a possibility
First flight · Firefly Aerospace
“which will power the debut launch of Eclipse which is expected to take place as early as next year”
Said . Source: Firefly Aerospace (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Firefly Aerospace Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results After Historic IPO (Sep 22, 2025, additional recent highlights)
Context: Subject: the Miranda engine; 'next year' is 2026.
Outcome: Firefly's 2026-08-11 results release reports more than 150 hot fire tests of Eclipse's Miranda engine and gives no Eclipse launch date.
Outcome source: Firefly Aerospace (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1): Firefly second quarter 2026 financial results release (Aug 11, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
Launch · NASA
“Dragonfly will launch in 2026 and arrive in 2034.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA’s Dragonfly Will Fly Around Titan Looking for Origins, Signs of Life (RELEASE 19-052) (Jun 27, 2019, paragraph 2)
Context: NASA release selecting Dragonfly as the fourth New Frontiers mission.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Not launched as of 2026-09-26. A NASA blog post of 2026-04-23 says Dragonfly is scheduled to launch no earlier than 2028.
Outcome source: NASA Science (Dragonfly blog): NASA’s Dragonfly Rotorcraft Gets Decked Out, Tested (Apr 23, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a target
Reaching orbit · SpaceX
“We expect Starship to commence payload delivery to orbit in the second half of 2026 following additional flight tests.”
Said . Source: SEC EDGAR: Form S-1: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (May 20, 2026, Management's Discussion and Analysis, 'Drivers of Our Performance: Developing Starship', page 94 (shorter form without 'following additional flight tests' on pages 1, 6, 141, 166 and 184))
Outcome: Starship Flight 14 lifted off from Starbase, Texas on 2026-09-28. SpaceX reported that the ship performed its orbital insertion burn and entered orbit, that all 26 Starlink V3 satellites it carried were deployed in orbit and in contact with the Starlink team, and that the ship then completed a deorbit burn and splashed down in the Pacific Ocean. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: SpaceX on X: Payload deploy complete. All 26 @Starlink V3 satellites are in orbit (Sep 28, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 28, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a commitment
Launch · Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, SpaceX · SpaceX
“The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.”
Said . Source: Elon Musk on X: The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years... (Sep 7, 2024, post text, paragraph 1)
Context: The 2026 Earth-Mars window: NASA's mission design handbook gives minimum-energy departures on 2026-10-31 and 2026-11-14. We use the end of 2026, as the starship-mars tracker does.
Outcome: Pending: the 2026 Earth to Mars window runs to 2027-01-11 (NASA mission design handbook). On 2026-02-08 Musk wrote: "SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon". Starship first reached orbit on Flight 14 on 2026-09-28; no Starship has launched toward Mars as of 2026-09-28.
Outcome source: Elon Musk on X: For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon (Feb 8, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Also in a topic tracker. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a commitment
Launch · State Council of China (White paper, State Council Information Office)
“In the next five years, China will continue with lunar and planetary exploration. It will: ... Launch the Chang'e-7 lunar probe to perform a precise landing in the moon's polar regions”
Said . Source: State Council of the PRC (english.gov.cn): Full Text: China’s Space Program: A 2021 Perspective (Jan 28, 2022, section on lunar and planetary exploration, next five years)
Context: Official English text of the white paper "China’s Space Program: A 2021 Perspective", section on the tasks for the next five years.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: On 23 August 2026, after the rocket and probe had been rolled out, CNSA and CMSA stated that Chang'e-7 did not meet launch conditions and could not launch in this year's planned window; no cause and no new date were given.
Outcome source: China National Space Administration: 嫦娥七号任务不满足发射条件 不能在今年预定窗口实施 (Aug 23, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Met · worded as a commitment
Launch · NASA
“Roman is now slated to launch no later than May 2027.”
Said . Source: NASA: NASA Confirms Roman Mission’s Flight Design in Milestone Review (Oct 14, 2021, Editor’s Note, 14 Oct. 2021)
Context: Dated editor’s note (14 Oct. 2021) on a NASA article of 2021-09-29; the replan committed a launch date and a $4.3 billion lifecycle cost. No earlier dated NASA launch date was found (the March 2020 approval article gives none).
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: met.
Outcome: Roman launched on a Falcon Heavy from Launch Complex 39A at 7:26 a.m. EDT on 2026-08-30; NASA said the launch date had been moved earlier to match the telescope's early completion. (, on or before the deadline)
Outcome source: NASA: NASA's Dark Universe-Seeking Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Launches (Aug 30, 2026)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Revised · worded as a commitment
First flight · Yuri Borisov, Director General, Roscosmos · Roscosmos
“The maiden launch of this rocket will take place in 2027”
Said . Source: President of Russia (Kremlin transcript): Meeting with Government members (Apr 17, 2024, Yury Borisov report)
Context: Kremlin transcript of the President’s meeting with Government members; Borisov reported on the Angara family and the upgraded Angara-A5M.
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: No Angara-A5M launch as of 2026-09-26; Roscosmos widened the first-launch date to 2027-2028 on 2025-04-12.
Outcome source: Roscosmos (official Telegram channel): Roscosmos post of 12 April 2025 on the industry in figures (Apr 12, 2025)
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a target
Station or module · Yuri Borisov, Director General, Roscosmos · Roscosmos
“When can it be launched? Yury Borisov: In 2027.”
Said . Source: President of Russia (Kremlin transcript): Meeting with young scientists and space industry specialists (Oct 26, 2023, exchange after Oleg Platonov)
Context: Kremlin transcript of President Putin’s meeting with young scientists and space industry specialists (RSC Energia); Putin asked when the station segment shown could be launched. Putin then said: "Vladimir Putin: The first segment must be orbited in 2027."
Later dated commitments for the same milestone
The counts use the original commitment. The latest date in the chain stands as: pending.
Outcome: Not launched as of 2026-09-26; the deadline has not passed. TASS reported on 2026-06-30 that Roscosmos projects the first module for 2028; we did not find that projection in a Roscosmos primary source, so it is not recorded as a revision.
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Pending · worded as a target
Crewed milestone · CMSA
“瞄准2030年前实现中国人首次登陆月球的目标”Translation: “targeting the goal of achieving the first landing of Chinese people on the Moon before 2030”
Said . Source: China Manned Space Agency (CMSE site): 2026年载人航天工程年度任务 (2026 annual tasks of the crewed space programme) (Feb 27, 2026, paragraph 3)
Context: CMSA's 2026 annual plan announcement; CMSA first announced the 'before 2030' goal on 29 May 2023.
Outcome: No crewed lunar landing as of 2026-09-26; the deadline has not passed.
Checked against the source on Sep 26, 2026. Report a correction or send a response to this entry ·
Deeper ledgers on single questions. They also carry regulator deadlines and reported statements, marked as such, which the Promise Ledger leaves out.
Every dated Starship promise we could source, from uncrewed Mars ships in the 2026 window to orbit, ship catches and propellant transfer: who said it, when, and whether it came due.
13 entries; 2 met; 0 met late; 1 missed; 0 came due, not met (awaiting confirmation); 1 revised, withdrawn, extended or waived; 1 came due, outcome not public; 8 pending. Verified Sep 26, 2026
Haven-1, Axiom, Starlab and Orbital Reef against the ISS deorbit: every dated launch promise over time, NASA's procurement dates and the ISS end-of-life commitments, each sourced.
33 entries; 2 met; 0 met late; 1 missed; 0 came due, not met (awaiting confirmation); 12 revised, withdrawn, extended or waived; 0 came due, outcome not public; 18 pending. Verified Sep 26, 2026
Amazon Leo, Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, Telesat Lightspeed and China's Qianfan against their FCC deployment milestones and their own stated targets, with dated satellite counts.
25 entries; 1 met; 0 met late; 4 missed; 0 came due, not met (awaiting confirmation); 5 revised, withdrawn, extended or waived; 1 came due, outcome not public; 14 pending. Verified Sep 26, 2026
Dated promises by the US and Chinese programmes, from SLS and Orion to Chang'e, with each programme's stretch factor.
15 promises · evidence as of Nov 2, 2026
Deadline rules, what counts as met for each kind of claim, and how conditional claims are handled are on the methodology page.
Open data: download the whole ledger (CSV, CC BY 4.0). Archived on Zenodo, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22985970. How entries are scored: methodology. No sponsor, advertiser or partner can add, remove, reorder, annotate or preview an entry, and these pages carry no advertising.
Cite as: SpaceNexus. (2026). SpaceNexus Promise Ledger (Version 2026-09-28) [Data set]. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22985970. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Launch dates are also tracked move by move in the Launch Slip Explorer and the on-time record.
Week in Space Data, every Friday.