Promise Tracker
NASA's plan of record retires the ISS in 2030, which the CHIPS and Science Act wrote into law as September 30, 2030. GAO (June 17, 2026) describes the sequence: lowering from early to mid 2028, the SpaceX deorbit vehicle launching in mid-2029, and the re-entry burn at the end of 2030 or early 2031. NASA will decide in 2027 whether to launch that vehicle or extend the station.
Every commercial successor has moved its date at least once. Vast's Haven-1 went from August 2025 to May 2026 to the first quarter of 2027; Axiom's first module from the second half of 2024 to early 2028; Starlab from 2027 to 2029. Orbital Reef has no current dated target. NASA proposed owning a core module in March 2026 and dropped the idea on June 2, 2026; its July 6 draft request for proposals returns to buying services from commercial free-flyers.
GAO estimates that at NASA's historical pace a commercial station would more likely reach initial capability in 2031, after the planned retirement. A Senate bill to keep the ISS to at least 2032 cleared committee on March 4, 2026 and has not moved since.
Every row checked against its sources on Sep 26, 2026. Quotes are exact unless marked as a paraphrase; anything we could not confirm is flagged on the row. Download the ledger (CSV, CC BY 4.0)
| Promise | Made | Due | Status | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISS operated through at least September 30, 2020NASA Authorization Act of 2010 (section 503)“maximum utilization of the United States segment of the ISS through at least September 30, 2020”U.S. Government Publishing Office (Oct 11, 2010) | through at least September 30, 2020 | Metdone Sep 30, 2020 | The ISS operated past September 30, 2020; the date was later extended to 2024 and then 2030. | |
| Axiom's first module launch in the second half of 2024Axiom Space (release)“The company targets launch of the first module in the latter half of 2024.”Axiom Space (Jan 27, 2020) · NASA (Jan 27, 2020) · NASA (Dec 19, 2024) | latter half of 2024 | Revised | No Axiom module had launched by December 31, 2024; on December 18 and 19, 2024 the assembly order changed to put the power module first, in early 2027. | |
| ISS extended to at least 2024John P. Holdren, White House science adviser“The Obama Administration's decision to extend its life until at least 2024 will allow us to maximize its potential”NASA (Jan 9, 2014) | until at least 2024 | Metdone Dec 31, 2024 | The ISS operated through 2024; on December 31, 2021 the U.S. extended it to 2030. | |
| Russia to leave the ISS after 2024Yuri Borisov, Roscosmos head, as reported by Al JazeeraParaphrase: Roscosmos chief says space agency will focus on creating its own orbital outpost as it exits multilateral project (Al Jazeera's summary)Al Jazeera (Jul 26, 2022, secondary) · NASA (Apr 27, 2023) | after 2024 | Withdrawn | On April 27, 2023 NASA reported Russia had confirmed support for station operations through 2028. | |
| Haven-1 launch, no earlier than August 2025Vast (press release)“Scheduled to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to low-Earth orbit no earlier than August 2025”Vast (May 10, 2023) · SpaceNews (Feb 6, 2025, secondary) | no earlier than August 2025 | Revised | On February 6, 2025 Vast moved the launch to May 2026. | |
| Haven-1 launch in the second half of 2025 (reaffirmed)Max Haot, Vast CEO, as reported by SpaceNewsParaphrase: In an October 2024 interview, Haot said the company was still targeting a launch in the second half of 2025 (SpaceNews's wording)SpaceNews (Feb 6, 2025, secondary) | second half of 2025 | Revised | On February 6, 2025 Vast moved the launch to May 2026.Not confirmed: The exact day of the October 2024 interview is not established; October 31 is used as the month's end. | |
| Haven-1 launch in May 2026Vast, as reported by SpaceNews“From there, the module will go to Florida for a launch in May 2026.”SpaceNews (Feb 6, 2025, secondary) · Ars Technica (Jan 20, 2026, secondary) | May 2026 | Revised | On January 20, 2026 Vast moved the launch to the first quarter of 2027, citing its integration timeline. | |
| First crew to Haven-1, no earlier than the end of June 2026Vast, as reported by SpaceNews“The first crew would then launch to Haven-1 on a Crew Dragon spacecraft no earlier than the end of June.”SpaceNews (Feb 6, 2025, secondary) · Vast (Jun 1, 2026) | no earlier than end of June 2026 | Revised | On June 1, 2026 Vast said the first crewed Haven-1 mission is planned for 2027. | |
| NASA selects commercial station companies (Phase 2) in summer 2026NASA, as reported by SpaceNews“NASA currently projects selecting companies for phase 2 CLD contracts in the summer of 2026”SpaceNews (Feb 6, 2025, secondary) · NASA (Jul 6, 2026) · Ars Technica (Jul 10, 2026, secondary) | summer 2026 | Missed | No Phase 2 award by September 22, 2026; the draft request for proposals came out July 6, 2026. | |
| A NASA-owned core module attached to the ISSNASA (release)“NASA would procure a government-owned Core Module that attaches to the space station”NASA (Mar 24, 2026) · Aviation Week (Jun 2, 2026, secondary) · SpaceNews (Jun 2, 2026, secondary) | a decision on the approach in summer 2026 (per GAO) | Withdrawn | NASA dropped the core-module proposal on June 2, 2026 after industry objections. | |
| Axiom habitat module attached to the ISS by 2026Payload, describing the 2020 NASA contract“In 2020, NASA awarded Axiom a $140M contract to attach a habitat module to the ISS by 2026.”Payload (Dec 18, 2024, secondary) · NASA (Dec 19, 2024) | by 2026 | Withdrawn | On December 19, 2024 NASA and Axiom announced the power module, not the habitat, goes to the ISS first.Not confirmed: The 2026 date is Payload's summary of the contract; the contract text was not read. | |
| Ax-5 private astronaut mission, no earlier than January 2027NASA (release)“targeted to launch no earlier than January 2027 from the agency's Kennedy Space Center in Florida”NASA (Jan 30, 2026) | no earlier than January 2027 | Pending | NASA and Axiom signed the Ax-5 order on January 30, 2026. | |
| Haven-1 ready to launch in the first quarter of 2027Vast (press release); reaffirmed by Max Haot“Based on the current integration timeline, Vast is updating its schedule for Haven-1 to be ready to launch Q1 2027.”Vast (Jan 20, 2026) · Aviation Week (Sep 18, 2026, secondary) | Q1 2027 | Pending | On September 18, 2026 Haot said Haven-1 remains on pace to fly in the first quarter of 2027. | |
| Two or more commercial station contractsNASA (draft request for proposals)“This approach would allow NASA to select two or more contractors through early development”NASA (Jul 6, 2026) · Ars Technica (Jul 10, 2026, secondary) | awards could come next spring (Ars Technica's expectation) | Pending | As of September 26, 2026 we found no final request for proposals on nasa.gov.Not confirmed: The award date is Ars Technica's expectation; NASA has not published one. | |
| Axiom power module (PPTM) to the ISS in early 2027Axiom Space, as reported by Payload“installing a power module on the ISS in early 2027 instead of its habitat module”Payload (Dec 18, 2024, secondary) · Aerospace America (AIAA) (Jan 12, 2026, secondary) | early 2027 | Revised | On January 12, 2026 Axiom's Peggy Whitson put the power module's launch in early 2028. | |
| Vast private astronaut mission to the ISS, no earlier than summer 2027NASA (release)“targeted to launch no earlier than summer 2027 from Florida”NASA (Feb 12, 2026) | no earlier than summer 2027 | Pending | NASA and Vast signed the order for the sixth private astronaut mission on February 12, 2026. | |
| First crewed Haven-1 mission in 2027Vast (press release)“Both missions are expected to last approximately two weeks and are planned for 2027”Vast (Jun 1, 2026) | 2027 | Pending | As of June 1, 2026, ESA reserve astronaut Arnaud Prost is to fly as flight test engineer on the first crewed Haven-1 mission. | |
| Starlab initial operating capability as soon as 2027The companies, as reported by SpaceNews“The companies said that Starlab could reach an initial operational capability as soon as 2027.”SpaceNews (Oct 21, 2021, secondary) · Payload (Jan 31, 2024, secondary) | as soon as 2027 | Revised | On January 31, 2024 Voyager's Matt Kuta put the launch in 2028. | |
| NASA decides in 2027: deorbit on schedule or extendNASA, as reported by GAO“In 2027, NASA will assess whether to launch the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle in 2029 to initiate the ISS's deorbit or to extend ISS operations.”U.S. Government Accountability Office (Jun 17, 2026) | 2027 | Pending | GAO recommended on June 17, 2026 that NASA document how it will make this decision. | |
| Axiom power module launch in early 2028Peggy Whitson, Axiom, as reported by Aerospace America“is slated to be launched in early 2028, with the second module following just months later”Aerospace America (AIAA) (Jan 12, 2026, secondary) · Houston Chronicle (via Yahoo Finance) (Aug 8, 2026, secondary) | early 2028 | Pending | On August 8, 2026 the Houston Chronicle reported Axiom plans to launch its first station component in 2028. | |
| Axiom two-module free-flying station as early as 2028NASA (assembly-order article)“the Payload, Power, and Thermal Module will launch to the orbiting laboratory first, allowing it to depart as early as 2028”NASA (Dec 19, 2024) · Payload (Dec 18, 2024, secondary) · Houston Chronicle (via Yahoo Finance) (Aug 8, 2026, secondary) | as early as 2028 | Pending | With the first module now slated for early 2028 (January 2026), a free-flyer in 2028 has little margin. | |
| Starlab launch in 2028 on StarshipMatt Kuta, Voyager Space, as reported by PayloadParaphrase: Kuta expects the habitat to launch in 2028, before the ISS is decommissioned in 2030 (Payload's wording)Payload (Jan 31, 2024, secondary) · Starlab Space (Jan 31, 2024) · Voyager Technologies (SEC Form S-1) (May 16, 2025) | 2028 | Revised | Voyager's S-1 filing (May 16, 2025) put the launch in 2029. | |
| Russia supports ISS operations through 2028NASA (ISS blog)“Russia has confirmed it will support continued station operations through 2028”NASA (Apr 27, 2023) · TASS (Jul 14, 2026, secondary) | through 2028 | Revised | On July 14, 2026 Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov said the two agencies agreed to extend joint operations through 2030. | |
| SpaceX completes the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle in 2028NASA, as reported by GAO“NASA estimates that SpaceX will complete the deorbit vehicle in 2028.”U.S. Government Accountability Office (Jun 17, 2026) · NASA (Jun 26, 2024) | 2028 | Pending | Under the June 2024 contract worth up to $843 million.Not confirmed: GAO attributes the 2028 date to an earlier report (GAO-25-107591, July 2025) that we did not read directly. | |
| Russian Orbital Station first module in 2028Dmitry Bakanov, Roscosmos, as reported by TASS“He also announced that the first module of the Russian Orbital Station (ROS) is projected to be deployed in 2028.”TASS (Jun 30, 2026, secondary) · TASS (Mar 17, 2026, secondary) | 2028 | Pending | Cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko said on March 17, 2026 that the first ROS modules dock to the ISS Russian segment before undocking near the end of ISS operations.Not confirmed: TASS says only that the statement was made "in April" 2026; April 30 is used as the month's end. | |
| U.S. Deorbit Vehicle launch in mid-2029NASA, as reported by GAO“Then, in mid-2029, NASA plans to launch the U.S Deorbit Vehicle and attach it to the ISS.”U.S. Government Accountability Office (Jun 17, 2026) | mid-2029 | Pending | GAO says NASA will decide in 2027 whether to launch the vehicle in 2029 or extend station operations. | |
| Starlab launch anticipated in 2029Voyager Technologies (SEC filings)“with launch anticipated in 2029 and revenue generation expected in Starlab's first full year of operation”Voyager Technologies (SEC Form S-1) (May 16, 2025) · Voyager Technologies (SEC Form 10-K) (Mar 10, 2026) · Starlab Space (Feb 23, 2026) | 2029 | Pending | Repeated in Voyager's 10-K (March 10, 2026); Starlab passed NASA's commercial critical design review on February 23, 2026. | |
| Orbital Reef ready in the second half of the 2020sBlue Origin and Sierra Space, as reported by SpaceNews; NASA“a modular space station that would be ready to host crews and payloads in the latter half of the 2020s”SpaceNews (Oct 25, 2021, secondary) · NASA (Dec 2, 2021) · Spaceflight Now (Aug 6, 2026, secondary) | latter half of the 2020s | Pending | As of September 26, 2026 we found no current dated target; New Glenn's only pad was damaged in the May 28, 2026 explosion. | |
| U.S. extends ISS operations through 2030NASA; CHIPS and Science Act, section 10815“the Biden-Harris Administration's commitment to extend International Space Station (ISS) operations through 2030”NASA (Dec 31, 2021) · U.S. Government Publishing Office (Aug 9, 2022) | through 2030 (in law: September 30, 2030) | Pending | Written into law on August 9, 2022 by the CHIPS and Science Act, which replaced September 30, 2024 with September 30, 2030. | |
| A commercial station's crewed demonstration (four crew, 30 days) by 2030NASA, as summarised by GAO“Commercial stations will be required to conduct a crewed on-orbit demonstration of the minimum capability of four crew for 30-day missions as soon as possible”NASA (Sep 5, 2025) · U.S. Government Accountability Office (Jun 17, 2026) | no later than 2030 | Pending | On June 17, 2026 GAO said that at NASA's historical pace companies would more likely reach initial capability in 2031. | |
| Roscosmos and NASA extend joint ISS operations through 2030Dmitry Bakanov, Roscosmos Director General, as reported by TASS“We reached agreement on three key issues. First, to extend joint operations of the ISS through 2030”TASS (Jul 14, 2026, secondary) · TASS (Aug 19, 2026, secondary) | through 2030 | Pending | On August 19, 2026 Bakanov said the agencies were negotiating who takes responsibility for which segment during deorbit. | |
| ISS re-entry burn at the end of 2030 or early 2031NASA, as reported by GAO“Finally, at the end of 2030 or early 2031, the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle will perform a re-entry burn”U.S. Government Accountability Office (Jun 17, 2026) | end of 2030 or early 2031 | Pending | GAO reports lowering of the station starts in early to mid 2028. | |
| Senate bill: keep the ISS through at least 2032Sen. Ted Cruz, committee chairman (S. 933 markup notice)“preserving the International Space Station through at least 2032 when commercial space stations are expected to begin operation”U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (Mar 4, 2026) · GovTrack (Sep 26, 2026, secondary) · SpaceNews (Mar 4, 2026, secondary) | through at least 2032 (proposed, not law) | Pending | S. 933 was ordered reported by the committee on March 4, 2026; GovTrack shows no later action as of September 26, 2026.Not confirmed: The committee notice is dated by the markup; its exact posting date was not captured. |
These are left out of the ledger, or marked, rather than guessed. If you have a primary source, tell us.
2 of these rows are also on the Promise Ledger, which takes only verbatim quotes with a primary source and scores every agency, company and person by the same rules.
How it works: a promise is a dated public commitment by a company, agency or regulator, recorded with the date it was made and the date it was due. “Met late” means it happened after the date; “came due, not met” means the date passed without it. Statuses are re-checked against sources before the verified date moves. Cite as “SpaceNexus Promise Tracker: Commercial space stations and the ISS retirement” with the link. No sponsor sees or shapes this ledger.
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