Promise Tracker
An FCC licence for a large constellation comes with deadlines: typically half the satellites in orbit within six years and all of them within nine. Amazon's first Leo (formerly Kuiper) authorization required 1,616 satellites by July 30, 2026. Amazon had launched 396 production satellites by July 2, 2026, asked in January for two more years, and on June 5, 2026 the FCC granted a conditioned waiver instead: the licence stands, but satellites launched after July 30, 2026 lose priority until half are up.
Starlink met its first-generation halfway mark with room to spare and in January 2026 had its second-generation authorization doubled to 15,000 satellites on the same deadlines. AST SpaceMobile has moved its own target from 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026 to about 45 in early 2027. Telesat told investors it could not meet its first FCC milestone in 2023 and plans its first two production launches for December 2026.
In July 2026 the FCC adopted new rules (FCC 26-47) that put systems licensed outside processing rounds on ITU-style milestones and make a missed halfway mark cost priority rather than licence size. Counts below are dated; McDowell's independent tables are cited as a secondary source.
Every row checked against its sources on Sep 26, 2026. Quotes are exact unless marked as a paraphrase; anything we could not confirm is flagged on the row. Download the ledger (CSV, CC BY 4.0)
| Promise | Made | Due | Status | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCC market access: first deployment deadlineFCC (condition in FCC 17-147)“Telesat must launch the space stations, place them in the assigned orbits, and operate them in accordance with the station authorization no later than November 3, 2023”FCC (Nov 3, 2017) · Telesat Corp (SEC 20-F) (Mar 17, 2026) | November 3, 202359 required | Missed | Telesat says it could not meet the milestone and asked for an extension on October 26, 2023; its annual report of March 17, 2026 still shows no outcome.Not confirmed: The order does not state the percentage; 59 is our arithmetic (half of 117, rounded up) under the six-year rule. We found no FCC action on the extension request. | |
| First launches in about two years (2021 plan)Telesat (SEC prospectus)“We expect to begin launching the first Telesat Lightspeed satellites in approximately two years' time”Telesat Corp (SEC 424B3) (Jun 30, 2021) · Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Aug 11, 2023) | about two years (commercial service in the second half of 2023) | Re-dated | On August 11, 2023 Telesat reset launches to mid-2026 when it contracted MDA. | |
| First generation (4,408 satellites): half deployedFCC (condition in FCC 21-48; originally FCC 18-38)“SpaceX must launch 50% of the maximum number of proposed space stations ... no later than March 29, 2024”FCC (Apr 27, 2021) · FCC (Mar 29, 2018) · FCC (Dec 1, 2022) | March 29, 20242,204 required | Met | The FCC recorded in December 2022 that SpaceX had launched more than 3,500 first-generation satellites by October 2022, well above the 2,204 needed.Not confirmed: "Met" is inferred from the FCC's launch totals; SpaceX's compliance certification was not located, so the exact date it was met is not known. | |
| V-band on the first 7,500 second-generation satellites: halfway deadlineFCC (DA 26-36, restating the original V-band grant)“no later than November 19, 2024”FCC Space Bureau (Jan 9, 2026) | November 19, 2024 | Came due, outcome not public | DA 26-36 (January 9, 2026) notes SpaceX asked to modify this milestone; we found no decision.Not confirmed: The original V-band grant was not read, so the date it was set is inferred; the outcome of SpaceX's modification request is unknown. | |
| 648 satellites for regional service by the end of 2025Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, as reported by CircleID“648 satellites providing regional service by the end of 2025”CircleID (Larry Press) (Sep 3, 2025, secondary) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | end of 2025648 required | Missed | McDowell shows 258 Qianfan satellites launched (178 on station) as of September 24, 2026.Not confirmed: No primary company statement located; the date given is the article's, not the date the target was set. | |
| Five orbital launches by the end of the first quarter of 2026 (company goal)AST SpaceMobile“On track for five orbital launches expected by the end of Q1 2026”AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Nov 10, 2025) · AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Apr 19, 2026) | end of Q1 2026 | Missed | Only BlueBird 6 (December 2025) launched before March 31, 2026; BlueBird 7 flew on April 19, 2026 and reached a lower orbit than planned.Not confirmed: The BlueBird 6 launch month comes from a news listing of AST's release, not the release itself. | |
| Launches from mid-2026, global service in late 2027 (2023 plan)Telesat“satellite launches scheduled to commence in mid-2026 and polar and global services scheduled to begin in late 2027”Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Aug 11, 2023) · Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Apr 7, 2025) · Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Mar 17, 2026) | mid-2026 launches; late 2027 service | Re-dated | By March 17, 2026 first launches were set for December 2026, and by August 13, 2026 service for around the end of the first quarter of 2028. | |
| First generation: half the constellation (1,616 satellites) launched and operatingFCC (condition in FCC 20-102)“Section 25.164(b) requires Kuiper to launch and operate 50 percent of its satellites no later than July 30, 2026”FCC (Jul 30, 2020) · FCC Space Bureau (Jun 5, 2026) · Amazon (Jul 2, 2026) | July 30, 20261,616 required | Waived, with conditions | On June 5, 2026 the Space Bureau (DA 26-553) waived automatic termination, with satellites launched after July 30, 2026 losing processing-round priority; Amazon's mission log totals 396 production satellites as of July 2, 2026.Not confirmed: Amazon's written milestone notice to the FCC, due in August 2026, was not located. | |
| About 700 satellites in orbit by July 30, 2026 (Amazon's own estimate)Amazon (January 30, 2026 filing, as described by the FCC)“estimated that it will have deployed approximately 700 satellites by July 30, 2026”FCC Space Bureau (Jun 5, 2026) · Amazon (Jul 2, 2026) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | July 30, 2026700 required | Missed | Amazon's mission log shows 396 production satellites after its launch of July 2, 2026; McDowell shows no further first-generation launches through September 24, 2026. | |
| 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026 (company goal)AST SpaceMobile“launches every one to two months on average to reach goal of 45 to 60 satellites by end of 2026”AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Nov 10, 2025) · AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Mar 2, 2026) · AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Apr 19, 2026) · AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Jul 15, 2026) | end of 202645 required | Re-dated | Repeated March 2, 2026; narrowed to about 45 by the end of 2026 on April 19; moved to early 2027 on July 15, 2026. | |
| First two production satellites launch in December 2026Telesat“The first two Telesat Lightspeed production satellites will be launched in December 2026, followed by a high cadence launch schedule throughout 2027.”Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Mar 17, 2026) · Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Nov 4, 2025) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | December 20262 required | Open | In November 2025 Telesat had said "an initial satellite launch late next year"; McDowell shows none launched as of September 24, 2026. | |
| First generation: all 4,408 satellitesFCC (condition in FCC 21-48)“no later than March 29, 2027”FCC (Apr 27, 2021) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | March 29, 20274,408 required | Open | McDowell counts 2,418 first-generation satellites on station as of September 24, 2026 (4,714 launched in total, including replacements).Not confirmed: McDowell's on-station count is not the FCC's compliance count. | |
| About 45 BlueBird satellites launched in early 2027 (company target)AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K)“its launch campaign is targeting approximately 45 of its BlueBird satellites ... in early 2027”AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Jul 15, 2026) · AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Aug 10, 2026) | early 202745 required | Open | On August 10, 2026 AST reported 13 spacecraft in orbit.Not confirmed: March 31, 2027 is our reading of "early 2027". | |
| Waiver condition: priority restored when half are up, or by March 30, 2028FCC (condition in DA 26-553)“Amazon Leo satellites deployed after July 30, 2026 will lose such priority status until the earlier of either”FCC Space Bureau (Jun 5, 2026) | March 30, 2028 (October 30, 2027 if Amazon certifies construction and launches)1,616 required | Open | The demotion runs until half the constellation is launched and operating or March 30, 2028, whichever comes first. | |
| Global commercial service around the end of the first quarter of 2028Telesat“we remain on track to commence global commercial service around the end of Q1 2028”Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Aug 13, 2026) · Telesat Corp (SEC 6-K) (Aug 4, 2026) | around the end of Q1 2028 | Open | On August 4, 2026 Telesat enlarged the planned constellation from 156 to 225 satellites. | |
| Amazon asks to move the halfway deadline to July 30, 2028, or waive itAmazon (filing of January 30, 2026, as described by the FCC)“seeking to extend the 50% milestone deployment deadline by 24 months, or in the alternative, requesting a waiver of this interim milestone requirement.”FCC Space Bureau (Jun 5, 2026) · Payload (Jun 9, 2026, secondary) | requested new date: July 30, 20281,616 required | Waived, with conditions | On June 5, 2026 the FCC declined the extension and granted a conditioned waiver instead.Not confirmed: The Amazon filing itself was not read; its content is taken from the FCC order. | |
| Second generation (now 15,000 satellites): half deployedFCC (FCC 22-91; kept for 15,000 in DA 26-36)“SpaceX must launch 50 percent of the maximum number of authorized space stations ... no later than December 1, 2028”FCC (Dec 1, 2022) · FCC Space Bureau (Jan 9, 2026) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | December 1, 20287,500 required | Open | On January 9, 2026 the FCC doubled the second generation to 15,000 on the same dates; McDowell counts 7,252 on station (8,228 launched) as of September 24, 2026.Not confirmed: The 7,500 figure is our arithmetic (half of 15,000). | |
| First generation: all 3,232 satellitesFCC (DA 26-553, restating FCC 20-102 as modified)“Amazon Leo is required to deploy 1,616 satellites by July 30, 2026 and deploy 3,232 satellites by July 30, 2029.”FCC Space Bureau (Jun 5, 2026) · FCC (Jul 30, 2020) | July 30, 20293,232 required | Open | The June 2026 waiver does not cover this final deadline; missing it caps the licence at the satellites operating that day. | |
| FCC: half of 248 satellites deployedFCC (condition in DA 26-391)“AST must launch 50 percent of the maximum number of space stations ... no later than August 2, 2030”FCC Space Bureau (Apr 21, 2026) · AST SpaceMobile (SEC 8-K) (Aug 10, 2026) | August 2, 2030124 required | Open | AST reported 13 spacecraft in orbit on August 10, 2026.Not confirmed: The 124 figure is our arithmetic (half of 248). | |
| About 15,000 satellites in orbit by 2030Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, as reported by CircleID“15,000 satellites in orbit”CircleID (Larry Press) (Sep 3, 2025, secondary) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | by 203015,000 required | Open | McDowell shows 258 launched as of September 24, 2026.Not confirmed: Secondary only; the original wording and date were not confirmed. | |
| Second generation: all 15,000 satellitesFCC (DA 26-36)“operate each of them in accordance with the authorization no later than December 1, 2031”FCC Space Bureau (Jan 9, 2026) | December 1, 203115,000 required | Open | The January 9, 2026 grant took the second generation from 7,500 to 15,000 satellites on the same schedule. | |
| Second generation (3,212 satellites): half deployedFCC (Space Bureau grant, condition 12b)“Kuiper must launch 50 percent of the maximum number of authorized space stations ... no later than February 10, 2032”FCC Space Bureau (grant document hosted by GeekWire) (Feb 10, 2026) · GeekWire (Feb 11, 2026, secondary) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | February 10, 20321,606 required | Open | McDowell shows no second-generation satellites launched as of September 24, 2026.Not confirmed: The 1,606 figure is our arithmetic (half of 3,212); the grant states the percentage. | |
| Polar system (1,292 satellites): half deployedFCC (Space Bureau grant, condition 12c)“Kuiper must launch 50 percent of the maximum number of authorized space stations ... no later than February 10, 2032”FCC Space Bureau (grant document hosted by GeekWire) (Feb 10, 2026) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | February 10, 2032646 required | Open | McDowell shows no polar satellites launched as of September 24, 2026.Not confirmed: The 646 figure is our arithmetic (half of 1,292). | |
| FCC: all 248 satellitesFCC (condition in DA 26-391)“operate them in accordance with the authorization no later than August 2, 2033”FCC Space Bureau (Apr 21, 2026) | August 2, 2033248 required | Open | The April 21, 2026 order keeps the deadlines from AST's first grant in 2024. | |
| Second-generation and polar systems: all 4,504 satellitesFCC (Space Bureau grant, conditions 12b and 12c)“operate them in accordance with the authorization no later than February 10, 2035”FCC Space Bureau (grant document hosted by GeekWire) (Feb 10, 2026) · Jonathan McDowell (planet4589) (Sep 24, 2026, secondary) | February 10, 20354,504 required | Open | None of the 4,504 had launched as of September 24, 2026 (McDowell). |
These are left out of the ledger, or marked, rather than guessed. If you have a primary source, tell us.
How it works: a promise is a dated public commitment by a company, agency or regulator, recorded with the date it was made and the date it was due. “Met late” means it happened after the date; “came due, not met” means the date passed without it. Statuses are re-checked against sources before the verified date moves. Cite as “SpaceNexus Promise Tracker: Megaconstellations against their licence deadlines” with the link. No sponsor sees or shapes this ledger.
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