Race to the Moon
15 dated promises, each with the date it was made, the date promised and the first attempt. Of the 9 the projection uses (lunar and human spaceflight, announced at least two years ahead, first attempt made): China 4 met and 1 late; United States 0 met and 4 late.
The two records are not like for like: by the tracker’s classification, China 3 incremental, 2 new development; United States 0 incremental, 4 new development. The table below lists every promise the tracker weighs, including the open ones and those it leaves out, with the reason. It is a sourced record of the promises we could document, not a complete list of every date either programme ever gave. Met means the first attempt came on or before the promised date. Rules: how the projection works.
Data reviewed against sources as of · Tracker method v1.0.3 · All dates UTC unless a local time is shown
Only completed promises the projection uses are drawn (announced at least 730 days ahead). The table below lists every promise, including open ones, whose stretch factor is only a lower bound until they fly.
Download the ledger (CSV), CC BY 4.0. Result key: ● Met · ▲ Late · ! Date passed, not yet flown · ○ Still open.
| Programme | Promise | Made | Promised by | First attempt | Result | s | In the projection? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Tiangong-1"2010年-2011年择机发射小型空间站" (2010–11; end of range used)Using the start of the range instead gives s = 1.33. Sources: Chinese Wikipedia (citing china.com.cn) (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary) | Met93 days early | 0.92 | Yes | |||
| United States | SLS core elements (NASA Authorization Act 2010)"not later than December 31, 2016" Sources: U.S. Congress (Public Law 111-267) (11 Oct 2010) | Late2,146 days late | 1.94 | No. A statutory goal the agency did not adopt; commitments must come from the implementing agency or the head of government. | |||
| China | Chang’e 3"嫦娥三号…预计2013年前后发射" (around 2013)Chinese Wikipedia citing Xinhua; the Xinhua original should be fetched. Sources: Chinese Wikipedia (citing Xinhua) (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary) | Met30 days early | 0.96 | Yes | |||
| China | Chang’e 5 ("about 2017", attributed by Wikipedia to the 2011 white paper, which gives no year) Sources: China National Space Administration (State Council white paper) (29 Dec 2011) · Wikipedia (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary) | Late1,058 days late | 1.48 | No. The 2011 white paper (fetched 24 Sep 2026) names no year for the sample-return phase: it says only “启动实施以月面采样返回为目标的月球探测第三步任务” (start the third, sample-return step). The “about 2017” date rests on Wikipedia alone. Excluding it removes China’s only lunar point above 1, which helps China; we say so. | |||
| United States | SLS first launchreadiness "no later than November 2018" (KDP-C)NASA’s September 2011 "first flight 2017" would be the earlier commitment (s = 1.77); its text is not yet confirmed from a NASA primary, so KDP-C is used. Sources: NASA (27 Aug 2014) · U.S. GAO (GAO-15-596) (read 23 Sep 2026) | Late1,447 days late | 1.93 | Yes | |||
| United States | Commercial Crewcompanies to "achieve crew rating in 2017" (CCtCap award); first attempt Demo-2 Sources: Wikipedia (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary) | Late881 days late | 1.73 | Yes | |||
| United States | Orion first crewed flight"a commitment baseline of $11.3 billion and an April 2023 launch readiness date" (Sep 2015) Sources: U.S. GAO (GAO-16-620) (read 23 Sep 2026) | Late1,067 days late | 1.38 | Yes | |||
| China | Tianhe core module"预计在2018年前后发射" (around 2018; CASC Fifth Academy via Xinhua)The speaker is the prime contractor, not CMSA. It is admitted because the US CLPS dates are also contractors’ dates. Sources: Chinese Wikipedia (citing Xinhua) (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary) | Late850 days late | 1.86 | Yes | |||
| China | Chang’e 4"around 2018 to achieve mankind’s first soft landing on the far side" (2016 white paper)734-day horizon: four days over the cutoff. Sources: State Council of the PRC (white paper) (28 Dec 2016) | Met24 days early | 0.97 | Yes | |||
| China | Tianwen-1 ("by 2020", 2016 white paper) Sources: State Council of the PRC (white paper) (28 Dec 2016) | Met161 days early | 0.89 | No. Deep space is outside both scopes; adding it would require adding US deep-space missions too. | |||
| United States | First CLPS deliveriesAstrobotic and Intuitive Machines "by July 2021" (first attempt: Peregrine)Contractors’ proposed dates, published in a NASA release. 792-day horizon: within 10% of the 24-month cutoff. Sources: NASA (31 May 2019) | Late891 days late | 2.13 | Yes | |||
| United States | Starship HLS delivery for the crewed landing"December 2024" under Option A (OIG) Sources: NASA Office of Inspector General (IG-26-004) (10 Mar 2026) | Not yet | Date passed, not yet flown | ≥ 1.47 | No. Open (not yet met): a lower bound only. It is a contract date, not a public agency commitment, so it is context only. | ||
| China | Chang’e 6"预计2024年前后实施" (around 2024) Sources: Chinese Wikipedia (citing Xinhua) (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary) | Met242 days early | 0.82 | Yes | |||
| China | Chang’e 7"scheduled for launch around 2026" (Sep 2024) Sources: gov.cn (Xinhua) (7 Sep 2024) · China Manned Space Agency (CMSE site) (23 Aug 2026) | Not yet | Still open | ≥ 0.88 | No. Open (not yet met): a lower bound only. It becomes at least 1.0 on 1 Jan 2027, which the postponement already makes certain. | ||
| China | Long March 10A and Mengzhou-1 ("2026", Oct 2025) Sources: China Manned Space Agency (CMSE site) (30 Oct 2025) · China Manned Space Agency (CMSE site) (26 Nov 2025) | Not yet | Still open | ≥ 0.77 | No. Announced less than 24 months ahead. |
s is computed from the dates as of 24 Sep 2026: time from announcement to first attempt, divided by time from announcement to the promised date. For an open promise it runs to that date, so it is a lower bound.
Licence: this data is published under CC BY 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International). Use it, share it and adapt it, commercially too, with credit to SpaceNexus and a link. It is our own compilation from the public sources linked on every row; quoted statements and those sources remain their owners’, and the illustrations are not part of the dataset.
Suggested citation
SpaceNexus. (2026). Race to the Moon: promise ledger of dated lunar and spaceflight commitments (Version 2026-09-24) [Data set]. https://spacenexus.us/moon/promise-ledger. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
@misc{spacenexus_moon_ledger_20260924,
author = {{SpaceNexus}},
title = {Race to the Moon: promise ledger of dated lunar and spaceflight commitments},
year = {2026},
version = {2026-09-24},
howpublished = {\url{https://spacenexus.us/moon/promise-ledger}},
note = {Licensed CC BY 4.0},
}Version 2026-09-24: the date the data was last reviewed against its sources. Download: CSV (UTF-8).
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