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Race to the Moon · China
China: Chang’e, Mengzhou and the ILRS
China made the first far-side landing (2019) and the first far-side sample return (2024). Its official goal is a first crewed landing before 2030 (2030年前), using two Long March 10 launches, the Mengzhou crew ship and the Lanyue lander. In May 2026 it merged its crewed and robotic lunar programmes into one 月球探测工程 (Lunar Exploration Project).
Data reviewed against sources as of · Tracker method v1.0 · All dates UTC unless a local time is shown
ILRS "basic model" by 2035: "an expandable and maintainable system capable of long-term robotic operation with short-term human participation". No official date for continuous occupation.
The complete official statement (CMSA, 23 Aug 2026). It gives no cause and no new date; we do not supply either.
本着稳妥可靠、万无一失的原则，经综合研判，嫦娥七号任务不满足发射条件，不能在今年预定窗口实施。
In line with the principle of being prudent, reliable and failure-proof, and after a comprehensive assessment, the Chang’e-7 mission does not meet launch conditions and cannot be carried out in this year’s planned window.
Approved by the central government in 2023; restated by CMSA on 27 Feb and 23 May 2026, the second time with "on schedule" (如期). Xinhua renders it "by 2030" in English — a translation choice, not a different target. No launch sequence has been officially dated.
Two Long March 10 launches: one carries the Lanyue landing stack, the other the Mengzhou crew ship (each about 26 t in CMSA’s 2023 presentation). They dock in lunar orbit; astronauts transfer to Lanyue, land, ascend, redock and return in Mengzhou. Lanyue has four 7,500 N variable-thrust engines; the suit supports at least eight hours of work.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
Three crew launched and two landing (only Lanyue’s two seats are official).
A surface stay of about six hours.
A lunar Mengzhou mass of 21.6 t (only about 26 t is sourced).
Long March 10 (lunar): 92.5 m, about 2,189 t at liftoff, at least 27 t to trans-lunar injection; three stages with two boosters; not yet flown in full configuration. Long March 10A: about 67 m, about 740 t, at least 14 t to low Earth orbit, reusable first stage; debut officially 2026. Long March 10B, a single-core commercial variant, reached orbit on 10 Jul 2026 and its booster was caught by a net at sea.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
Modular crew ship for up to seven people in Earth orbit. A precursor flew to about 8,000 km in May 2020; pad abort 17 Jun 2025; max-Q abort 11 Feb 2026 with prototype hardware. Mengzhou-1 (uncrewed, to Tiangong on Long March 10A) is officially planned for 2026 and has not flown.
Two-seat lander (crew module plus propulsion module) built for lunar-orbit rendezvous. Completed an integrated landing and takeoff test at Huailai on 6 Aug 2025. Has not flown.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
Two orbiters (2007, 2010), the first soft landing since 1976 (Chang’e 3, 2013), the first far-side landing (Chang’e 4, 2019), sample returns from the near side (Chang’e 5, 1,731 g, 2020) and the far side (Chang’e 6, 1,935.3 g, 2024), and two robotic rendezvous-and-dockings in lunar orbit. Every Chang’e mission has met its primary objective.
Postponed out of the 2026 window; no new official date
Orbiter, lander, rover and a hopper to probe permanently shadowed craters. Arrived at Wenchang by 9 Apr 2026, stacked on Long March 5 Y14 and rolled out on 19 Aug, then postponed on 23 Aug with no cause and no new date given. CGTN notes that suitable south-polar lighting windows total about 100 days a year and "do not occur every month".
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
A launch mass of 8,200 kg (a 2020 figure that included a relay satellite).
A target of 88.8°S 123.4°E near Shackleton (reported; official texts say "lunar south pole").
Lander, rover and multi-purpose robot; tests 3-D printing bricks from regolith; 200 kg for international payloads including Pakistan’s Jinnah-1 rover (30 kg).
Queqiao (2018) at the Earth–Moon L2 point relayed for Chang’e 4. Queqiao-2 (launched 20 Mar 2024, 8–10 year design life) relays for Chang’e 4 and 6 and will serve Chang’e 7 and 8.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
A proposed constellation of a dozen or more Queqiao satellites (a researchers’ proposal, not an official programme).
A 100 Mbps two-way Earth–DRO-A optical link in August 2026 (secondary).
Founded with Russia (memorandum 9 Mar 2021). Officially "long-term robotic operation with short-term human participation" — not continuous crewing. Basic model at the south pole by 2035; extended model in the "2040s" (Wu Weiren, 2025) or "by 2050" (Xinhua summary, 2024). Partners: "17 countries and international organizations" (CNSA, April 2025). The ILRS principles are not public. How the ILRS maps onto the merged, CMSA-voiced programme has not been explained.
Planned governance: a cooperation committee, expert consultative committee, technology alliance, science alliance and coordination headquarters. CNSA’s Han Siyuan: "free riding plus data sharing".
Reuters reports a "555 Project" inviting 50 countries, 500 institutions and 5,000 researchers.
Memorandum signed 8 May 2025. Roscosmos said in 2024 it planned a reactor by 2035, and in 2025 that the ILRS should be completed by 2036. The Chang’e-8 chief engineer, Pei Zhaoyu, showed a nuclear plant in a 2025 presentation; China "has never formally announced" it (Reuters). In April 2026 the Russian Academy of Sciences approved the concept of Russia’s ILRS segment.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
New-generation crew spacecraft prototype flies and returns
A full-scale test article launched on Long March 5B reached about 8,000 km apogee and returned on 8 May 2020 (13:49 BJT), per CMSA via Xinhua. A precursor of Mengzhou, not the current lunar design.
Sources:Xinhua (8 May 2020) · Wikipedia (read 23 Sep 2026, secondary)
State Council white paper: continue studying a human lunar landing
"Continue studies … on the plan for a human lunar landing, develop new-generation manned spacecraft". Chang’e-7 to make "a precise landing in the moon’s polar regions and a hopping detection in lunar shadowed area" (no year given).
Zhang Hailian (CMSA deputy chief designer): two Long March 10 launches; the lander stack and the crew ship (each about 26 t) dock in lunar orbit; land two astronauts "before 2030".
ILRS "basic model" by 2035 restated; Senegal joins
Chang’e-7 "around 2026" and Chang’e-8 "around 2028"; six international instruments on Chang’e-7; 200 kg of international payload capacity on Chang’e-8.
Roscosmos and CNSA sign a memorandum on a lunar power plant for the ILRS
Signed on the day of the Putin–Xi talks in Moscow. Roscosmos: the ILRS "should be completed by 2036"; in 2024 it had said a reactor by 2035. China "has never formally announced" the nuclear plan (Reuters).
"进度紧张，各项工作面临风险挑战" — "the schedule is tight and all work faces risks and challenges" (Shenzhou-21 press conference). Long March 10A and Mengzhou-1 to debut in 2026.
Mengzhou-1: uncrewed debut on Long March 10A, docking at Tiangong
Official plan: 2026 (CMSA mission-patch notices, Oct/Nov 2025). Not in CMSA’s February 2026 annual plan; in May CMSA spoke of verifying the Earth-orbit system "over the next two years through multiple space-station flights".
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
A slip to 2027 — China in Space’s inference from an upper stage entering service in Q1 2027, not an official statement.
A report that the Long March 10A debut will instead carry a lunar "space-time reference satellite".
Long March 10 low-altitude flight and Mengzhou max-Q abort
A single first-stage core and a Mengzhou, both prototype (初样) hardware, from a new pad at Wenchang; China’s first max-Q crew abort and first sea splashdown of a crew capsule and a rocket stage. The stage was salvaged from the sea on 13 Feb.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
The stage splashing down "about 200 m from the recovery ship".
Crewed and robotic lunar programmes merged into the 月球探测工程 (Lunar Exploration Project)
Integrated in "missions, resources and teams" (CMSA spokesperson Zhang Jingbo, 09:00 BJT, Jiuquan). Upcoming: a Long March 10 technical verification flight and the first flights of Mengzhou and Lanyue — no dates given. "Go all out to achieve, on schedule (如期), … before 2030." The statement says nothing about CNSA’s international role or the ILRS.
CMSA: “In line with the principle of being prudent, reliable and failure-proof, and after a comprehensive assessment, the Chang’e-7 mission does not meet launch conditions and cannot be carried out in this year’s planned window.” No cause and no new date given.
Analyst sequence: uncrewed Mengzhou to the Moon (2027), Lanyue plus a crewed Mengzhou in lunar orbit (2028), landing (2029 or 2030)
Inferred by Daniel Marín (Eureka, 19 Apr 2025) from an unofficial presentation image; not an official schedule. IEEE Spectrum (Feb 2026) gives a similar sequence without a CMSA citation.
Lander, rover and a multi-purpose robot near the south pole; tests 3-D printing of bricks from regolith. Chang’e 7 and 8 are to be parts of the ILRS "basic model".
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
A site near Leibnitz Beta.
A 35 kg mass for Pakistan’s rover (SUPARCO says 30 kg).
Two Long March 10 launches; Mengzhou and the two-seat Lanyue lander meet in lunar orbit. CMSA, 23 May 2026: go all out to achieve, "on schedule" (如期), the first Chinese landing before 2030. No launch sequence has been officially dated.
Unconfirmed — reported but not confirmed by a primary source:
A crew split of three launched and two landing (only Lanyue’s two seats are official).
Claims that appear in reporting but that no primary source confirmed. We show them labelled rather than state them as fact.
Two launches, lunar-orbit rendezvous: Three crew launched and two landing (only Lanyue’s two seats are official).
Two launches, lunar-orbit rendezvous: A surface stay of about six hours.
Two launches, lunar-orbit rendezvous: A lunar Mengzhou mass of 21.6 t (only about 26 t is sourced).
Long March 10 family: About 70 t to low Earth orbit for Long March 10.
Lanyue: A module-separation test on 29 Oct 2024.
Wangyu suit and Tansuo rover: Wangyu "unveiled 28 Sep 2024" (CMSA opened the naming campaign on 27 Sep 2024).
Wangyu suit and Tansuo rover: A "final prototype" by the end of 2026.
Chang’e-7 (south pole): A launch mass of 8,200 kg (a 2020 figure that included a relay satellite).
Chang’e-7 (south pole): A target of 88.8°S 123.4°E near Shackleton (reported; official texts say "lunar south pole").
Chang’e-7 (south pole): Weather (Typhoon Narra) as the cause.
Chang’e-7 (south pole): A 2027 launch.
Queqiao and Queqiao-2: A proposed constellation of a dozen or more Queqiao satellites (a researchers’ proposal, not an official programme).
Queqiao and Queqiao-2: A 100 Mbps two-way Earth–DRO-A optical link in August 2026 (secondary).
Lunar nuclear power (with Russia): A 2033–2035 delivery window.
Long March 10 low-altitude flight and Mengzhou max-Q abort: The stage splashing down "about 200 m from the recovery ship".
Long March 10B maiden flight reaches orbit; booster caught by net at sea: The recovery ship’s name, Linghangzhe (one outlet only).
Mengzhou-1: uncrewed debut on Long March 10A, docking at Tiangong: A slip to 2027 — China in Space’s inference from an upper stage entering service in Q1 2027, not an official statement.
Mengzhou-1: uncrewed debut on Long March 10A, docking at Tiangong: A report that the Long March 10A debut will instead carry a lunar "space-time reference satellite".
Russian–Chinese lunar reactor: A "2033–2035" delivery window.